Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
A quiet split has opened between Washington and one of NATO’s eastern-flank capitals over how to handle Alexander Lukashenko.
Just days after the US lifted another round of sanctions on Belarusian firms in exchange for the release of political prisoners, President Donald Trump announced Washington was chasing a much larger prize:
A “massive” potash fertilizer deal with the Lukashenko government meant to undercut Canadian prices for American farmers.
Lithuania is not on board. Foreign Affairs Committee chair Remigijus Motuzas told public broadcaster LRT that Vilnius sees no case for easing sanctions on Belarus, framing his stance as the shared EU position.
“We have no reason today to lift sanctions on Belarus. This is the common position not only of Lithuania but also of the European Union,” he said.
Motuzas added that prisoner releases had not shifted the underlying picture inside the country: “Although political prisoners are being released, nothing is changing in Belarus.”
Conservative lawmaker Žygimantas Pavilionis, the committee’s deputy chair, argued a US deal would undercut solidarity with Ukraine, the EU and Canada. Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys has said the US and Lithuania hold differing positions on easing the sanctions regime.
Trump’s pitch and Lukashenko’s rebuttal
Trump laid out the deal in a post on Truth Social on September 21, writing that “the United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus” and that pricing would be “substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.”
Lukashenko contradicted the pitch the same day. Speaking about export capacity, he said Belarus has no spare volumes to send westward: “Even if we wanted to supply other markets – Western markets – we simply don’t have the volume. It’s all under contract.”
The US has been unwinding Belarus sanctions in stages. In March, the Trump administration removed measures on the country’s two main potash producers, Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company. On September 16, US Special Envoy John Coale announced in Minsk that 25 political prisoners had been freed, and Washington in exchange lifted sanctions on two more firms, Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom.
EU keeps the line, opposition warns Washington
Brussels has not followed. EU law still bans the import, purchase and transfer of Belarusian potash, and the bloc’s asset freeze on Belaruskali remains in force, as summarized by a legal advisory tracking the divergence between US and EU measures. That gap is what Lithuanian officials say they intend to defend.
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, speaking at the UN General Assembly, warned Trump that revenue from any potash deal would flow into repression at home and the war effort next door.
“Our position is that it is not time to trade with the regime while all the income from potash goes to repression, goes to support of the Russian war machine,” she said, adding that “any deal with the regime is very risky.”
She also cautioned that “while releasing some people, Lukashenko takes twice more. It’s like revolving doors.”
For the US farm belt, the pitch matters because Canada supplies the bulk of American potash imports, and any diversion to Belarus would reshape those flows. For now, the practical obstacle is Lukashenko’s own statement that Minsk has nothing left uncontracted to sell.
