Kenneth Glad
Political parties throw massive events to excite loyal voters ahead of election day. But sometimes the loudest voice on the stage accidentally wakes up the rival side instead. That is exactly what a wave of fresh survey data suggests is happening right now.
Republicans gathered in Dallas this week for a highly unusual midterm convention. Dubbed a two-day “Trump-a-Palooza,” the massive event at the American Airlines Center was designed to serve as a high-stakes rally and fundraiser. Party leaders hoped the fresh strategy would jolt conservative voters into action for the upcoming congressional races.
They clearly need the help. Recent surveys reveal a glaring enthusiasm gap, with left-leaning voters showing far more excitement about the ballot box.
A University of Massachusetts poll found 42 percent of Democrats are very enthusiastic about voting. Only 30 percent of Republicans shared that feeling. A separate Reuters and Ipsos survey tracked a similar divide, putting Democrats ahead by 13 points.
Stakes on the left
Other polling outfits capture the same lopsided energy. A CNN survey conducted by SSRS reported 60 percent of Democrats feel extremely motivated to vote. Only 46 percent of Republicans matched that intense level.
The Washington Post measured voter certainty, and the results heavily favor the left. Seven out of ten Democratic voters view this year’s midterms as more critical than past cycles. Less than half of Republicans agree. Democrats also held a clear seven-point edge on absolute certainty to vote.
A Quinnipiac University poll recorded an 18-point gap on the urgency of this specific election. Analysts point out this climate feels incredibly familiar. It mirrors the motivation gap that helped Democrats win the House of Representatives in 2018.
The main attraction
President Donald Trump took center stage at the convention in Dallas. He aimed to rally his base, but his towering presence often creates a headache for Republican strategists.
He even tossed out a massive financial pledge to drum up conservative enthusiasm. During his keynote speech, he promised to hand a $5,000 dividend to every adult citizen if his party wins control of Congress.
Despite dangling that trillion-dollar promise, the strategy appears to be backfiring. He currently serves as an alarm bell for his toughest critics, while leaving his own supporters relatively uninspired.
Instead of boosting his allies, his constant spotlight gives left-leaning voters a clear target. Polling from the University of Massachusetts shows Democrats are far more likely to vote based purely on their feelings about him.
A massive majority of liberal voters want to use their ballot to send a clear message of opposition, while less than half of conservative voters feel a similar urge to show support.
Sources: University of Massachusetts, Reuters, Ipsos, CNN, SSRS, Washington Post, Quinnipiac University, Pew Research Center
