Kathrine Frich
An unexpected assessment from a senior British military figure has stirred debate about the Kremlin’s future.
Writing in the British press, he argues that recent events point to a deeper crisis inside Russia.
The analysis suggests that propaganda failures, diplomatic pressure, and economic strain are converging at a dangerous moment for Vladimir Putin’s rule.
False flag doubts
British Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon wrote in The Telegraph that claims of a Ukrainian drone attack on one of Putin’s palaces were almost certainly fabricated.
According to his account, the CIA briefed U.S. President Donald Trump that reports of 91 drones striking the site bore the hallmarks of a false flag operation.
He argued that the episode was a clumsy attempt to disrupt peace talks that are “rapidly slipping out of the Kremlin’s control.”
De Bretton-Gordon noted that Russia’s most advanced air defenses protect such locations, while even local civilians reported seeing no drones.
More damaging, he wrote, is that many Russians appear unconvinced by the official narrative.
Panic in Moscow
The colonel linked the alleged fabrication to panic triggered by Trump’s claim that a peace deal with Ukraine is “95% complete,” a message echoed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He said the Kremlin’s response followed a familiar pattern of implausible stories and crude disinformation.
According to The Telegraph, de Bretton-Gordon argued that when domestic propaganda begins to collapse, regimes often follow.
He said Putin now sees his remaining leverage as driving a wedge between Trump and Zelensky.
Shifting leverage
De Bretton-Gordon wrote that Washington’s stance has hardened.
Trump, he said, is “much less receptive to Kremlin manipulation” than weeks earlier, partly due to the influence of the so-called “coalition of the willing.”
While the proposed peace would still be painful for Kyiv, the colonel argued it is far worse for Moscow.
He described Russia’s campaign as an “industrial-scale failure” after years of fighting and massive casualties.
He highlighted that long-term U.S.-NATO security guarantees would amount to de facto NATO protection, a scenario he said no Kremlin messaging could disguise as victory.
Economic pressure
The analysis also pointed to severe economic risks.
De Bretton-Gordon wrote that Trump, not Putin, would negotiate access to rare earth minerals in Donbas, while reparations and the possible seizure of $200 billion in frozen Russian assets loom.
With oil prices falling below $60 a barrel, he argued, the financial base of Russia’s war effort is eroding. He concluded that
“Trump now has Putin firmly by the jugular,” adding that sustained pressure could make 2026 a turning point.
