Kathrine Frich
He says they wont be wearing an official Russian uniform if they come.
When global tensions reach a boiling point, ordinary people naturally wonder where the next conflict will erupt. Military strategists spend their careers predicting exactly that. Now, one historian has pinpointed the exact spots keeping European leaders awake at night.
Three prime targets
NATO leaders are heavily boosting their eastern borders. At the same time, politicians in the UK openly describe Russia as a lasting threat.
Allied jets are scrambling near Ukraine on a regular basis. According to the Express, these close calls have sparked intense debate about where an invasion might happen.
Author and historian David Swift has studied the map. He told the publication that three specific nations face the highest risk.
Swift pointed directly to the Baltic states. He said, “Definitely Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are the most vulnerable because of geography and their small size and populations.”
Echoes of the past
Lithuania sits in a particularly tight spot. The small nation borders the heavily armed Russian territory of Kaliningrad on one side and Belarus on the other.
This geographic setup creates a perfect storm for covert operations. Swift warned the Express about the threat of disguised troops causing chaos.
He noted that Lithuania is exposed to “deniable action by paramilitaries or forces not overtly wearing Russian uniforms, as with the ‘Little Green Men’ who invaded the Donbas in 2014.”
Poland seems safe from a direct attack for now. Swift explained that the Polish military “is much stronger and I imagine Putin wouldn’t want to test it yet”.
Preparing at home
The invasion threat is also sparking domestic debates in Britain. Recently, politicians proposed a voluntary war register for citizens wanting to help during a crisis.
Swift told the Express this system could mobilize citizens for non-combat tasks. He predicted it would “largely recruit from more middle class people, as with those offering refuge to Ukrainians”.
The conscription question
If a formal military draft returns, Swift offered a blunt assessment. He believes essential defense workers would be completely protected from the front lines.
Swift told the Express, “Since there is such an urgent need to rebuild Britain’s defence industries and industrial capacity, I would expect that people in these important occupations would be exempt.”
The military would likely look elsewhere for fresh troops. He suggested that “conscription would target unemployed graduates”, adding that “this would be very popular with lots of people.”
