Kathrine Frich
As war grinds on in Europe and tensions rise across multiple regions, military analysts warn that the coming year could prove decisive.
A series of simmering disputes and strategic chokepoints now sit dangerously close to open conflict.
From crowded sea lanes to disputed islands, experts say 2026 could test the limits of global stability.
Caribbean pressure builds
In the Caribbean Sea, US military activity has increased sharply amid tensions with Venezuela.
American warships, bombers and aircraft have been deployed as Washington steps up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s government.
Former British Army intelligence officer Philip Ingram said the scale of the US build-up is striking.
“Donald Trump is building up one of the largest naval and military forces we’ve seen in the region for a long time,” he said.
According to Ingram, the deployment is linked to curbing drug trafficking, restricting Venezuelan oil exports and deterring migration. He warned the situation “could flash up very quickly indeed”.
Nato’s northern edge
The Gulf of Finland, wedged between Russia and Nato members Finland and Estonia, has emerged as another sensitive point.
The narrow waterway has seen Russian fighter jets stray into Nato airspace and suspected sabotage of undersea infrastructure.
Ingram said Moscow could use the area to distract European states from the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s so-called shadow fleet also operates there, helping to bypass sanctions by moving oil covertly.
He added that continued airspace incursions and maritime activity risk escalating into a wider confrontation.
Islands off Taiwan
In Asia, attention is focused on the Kinmen Islands, a small Taiwanese-controlled archipelago just miles from China’s coast.
Ingram suggested Beijing could seize the islands as a test of Taiwan’s resolve and of US willingness to intervene.
“This is something that China could easily take with a very small military capability – and then sit and watch what the international community does,” he said.
China claims Taiwan as its territory, while Taipei insists it is an independent state.
Energy chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, carrying more than a fifth of global oil supplies.
Ingram warned Iran could attempt to close the strait if regional tensions intensify.
“If it felt that it wanted to bite back at the West, Iran could decide to close it,” he said, noting the economic shock such a move would trigger.
Korean uncertainty
On the Korean peninsula, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un has abandoned reunification rhetoric and described the South as his “principal enemy”.
Ingram said Kim may feel emboldened by closer ties with Russia and China.
“We’ve got a despot with nuclear weapons,” he said, warning that Seoul remains highly vulnerable in any renewed conflict.
Sources: The Sun, Reuters, AP
