Kathrine Frich
As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, debate over nuclear threats is resurfacing in Europe and beyond.
On the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, one former insider of Russia’s elite has issued a stark warning about what he sees as a dangerous new normal.
Nuclear rhetoric rises
Israeli businessman and political commentator Leonid Nevzlin published a commentary on the Ukrainian outlet Obozrevatel marking the anniversary of the invasion.
In his article, he argued that increasingly frequent nuclear references from Moscow are no coincidence. According to Nevzlin, the rhetoric may be part of an information strategy ahead of further negotiations between Ukraine, the United States and Russia.
He suggested the messaging could also be linked to discussions about a possible extension of the New START strategic arms reduction treaty.
Even if such statements are intended as negotiating pressure, Nevzlin warned that repeated public talk of nuclear weapons during an ongoing war carries profound risks.
Changing red lines
Nevzlin accused the Kremlin of hypocrisy, noting that Russia once guaranteed Ukraine’s security after Kyiv surrendered its nuclear arsenal, but later launched a military assault on the country.
More troubling, he wrote, is what he sees as the gradual normalization of nuclear use in public discourse.
According to Nevzlin, policies pursued by President Vladimir Putin have made scenarios such as the deployment of medium-range ballistic missiles in Europe appear plausible, whereas a decade ago they were widely viewed as “unthinkable.”
He argued that shifting perceptions are influencing global security calculations, with some states that previously avoided nuclear ambitions now reconsidering their positions.
A new nuclear era?
Public debate has increasingly touched on the possibility of renewed nuclear testing by major powers, including Russia and the United States.
There have also been reports suggesting China may have tested a low-yield nuclear device as part of efforts to modernize its arsenal.
Nevzlin cautioned that becoming accustomed to nuclear threats could have long-term consequences for global stability.
“All of this has become possible thanks to Putin. He and his associates continue to push the boundaries of what is acceptable, leading us all into the abyss,” he wrote.
Who is Nevzlin
Leonid Borisovich Nevzlin, born in 1959, is an Israeli businessman and philanthropist formerly linked to Russia’s oil sector. He held senior roles at Menatep Group and Yukos Oil Company.
In 2008, a Russian court sentenced him in absentia to life imprisonment on charges of conspiracy to murder.
In 2014, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favor of former Yukos shareholders, describing the Russian state’s actions as a “ruthless campaign to destroy and expropriate assets.”
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Nevzlin renounced his Russian citizenship and has since been an outspoken critic of the Kremlin.
Sources: Obozrevatel, O2.
