Kathrine Frich
Behind Russia’s numbers analysts say the true scale of military spending tells a different story.
An intelligence assessment from Germany indicates that the costs of war extend far beyond what Moscow publicly acknowledges.
Astronomical military spending
Russia’s military expenditure in recent years has been far higher than the figures listed in its official defense budget, according to an analysis by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND).
The agency estimates that real spending has exceeded declared levels by as much as 66%.
According to the BND, a range of military-related costs are excluded from Russia’s defense budget.
These include construction projects for the Defense Ministry, military software programs and social benefits paid to service members.
The German intelligence service says these expenses are instead recorded in other parts of the Russian state budget, obscuring the full financial burden of the war. The findings were reported by dpa and cited by Agerpres.
Different definitions used
One explanation for the gap, the BND notes, is that Russia defines defense spending very differently from NATO countries.
As a result, comparisons based solely on official budget lines can be misleading.
The analysis also points out that Russian defense data are frequently distorted, making additional verification necessary.
German intelligence officials say they have been monitoring these discrepancies over an extended period.
Because of these accounting practices, the BND argues that Russia’s officially published figures fail to reflect the real scale of resources devoted to the military.
War-driven expansion
Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has sharply increased military spending year after year, according to the BND document cited by DPA.
The intelligence service estimates that Russia spent around $296 billion on its military last year.
That figure would represent roughly half of total state spending and about 10% of the country’s gross domestic product.
By comparison, military spending accounted for about 6% of GDP in 2022, rising to 6.7% in 2023 and 8.5% in 2024.
The BND says the funds are being used not only to sustain the war in Ukraine but also to expand military capabilities, particularly near NATO’s eastern flank.
German intelligence officials describe these figures as concrete evidence of a growing security threat to Europe, according to DPA.
Sources: dpa, Agerpres, Digi24.
