Kathrine Frich
As the conflict in Ukraine enters its fifth year, concerns are growing about what the long-term impact could be on Europe’s security.
One leading defence analyst now argues the continent may already be locked in a drawn-out struggle that could stretch far into the future.
Michael Clarke, a visiting professor at King’s College London and the University of Exeter, said the current tensions amount to what he calls a third European war, distinct from fears of a global conflict.
Speaking to Sky News, he described the situation as “existential” and warned that Moscow is engaged in a sustained campaign that goes beyond conventional battlefield fighting.
A different war
Clarke dismissed suggestions that the world is on the brink of a traditional global war.
“I don’t see World War 3 anywhere likely or close, in the sense that people think World War 3 as destruction,” he said.
He noted that the two 20th-century world wars were “universal wars for different reasons”.
While conflicts are flaring in multiple regions today and may “get worse”, he argued there is no single force binding them into one worldwide confrontation.
However, he criticised fictional portrayals of an imminent world war, saying novels about a looming global conflict are “all wrong” in this context.
Long-term belligerence
According to Clarke, the greater danger lies in Russia’s long-term posture.
“Where we are in dangerous territory, and increasingly dangerous territory, is that Russia under Putin is committed to long-term beligerence,” he said.
“They’ve given up on peaceful coexistence in the West”, he added.
Clarke argued that the Kremlin aims to reassert the sphere of influence it held during the Cold War, when Moscow dominated much of Eastern Europe, including territories that are now independent states.
Shifting boundaries
He pointed out that the old Soviet security buffer once extended deep into Europe, incorporating countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and the Baltic states, along with former Eastern Bloc nations.
“That security boundary made Moscow feel safe,” he said, contrasting it with today’s geopolitical map, where NATO’s frontier lies far closer to the Russian capital.
“We’re in a sort of a European third war, let’s called it European War 3, which is long-term,” Clarke said.
“It’s existential. It’s going to be out there for the foreseeable future, probably most of the rest of this century, one way or another, and, at the moment, the Russians are pursuing it by every means, up to actual violence.”
Sources: Sky News, Institute for the Study of War, Express.
