Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to Ukraine, Russia is losing more troops than it can replenish.
Moving to a new country is usually about chasing a better life and finding steady work.
But for thousands of people crossing borders today, that hopeful journey is turning into an inescapable nightmare.
The fine print on their immigration paperwork is being used as a weapon.
A desperate quota
According to a report from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR), Moscow has mapped out a bleak objective. Officials plan to push roughly 20,000 foreign nationals into military service.
This sprawling recruitment drive relies heavily on intimidation rather than the promise of high salaries. Audits have systematically tracked foreign men aged 18 to 60 across Russian territory to set drafting targets.
Local authorities must draft up to 3.5 percent of the foreign population in every district. Migrants from Central Asian nations, including Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, remain the primary focus of this campaign.
The intelligence agency highlighted that the dragnet extends far beyond neighboring borders. Recruitment efforts are heavily concentrated on citizens from struggling countries such as Sudan, Chad, Burundi, and Bangladesh.
Weaponizing the law
The massive drafting operation is funneled through nearly a hundred official selection centers, working alongside shadow military groups managed by Russian intelligence. These include mercenary outfits like Redut and Convoy.
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service previously reported that Moscow has fundamentally altered how it applies everyday immigration rules. Minor administrative infractions are used as extreme leverage against vulnerable guest workers.
Foreigners caught with expiring paperwork or minor legal missteps suddenly face an impossible dilemma. They are threatened with almost a decade behind bars if they refuse to cooperate with military recruiters.
To avoid prison sentences, individuals are pressured into military service. According to the report published by the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine, migrants face state persecution unless they choose to “voluntarily” sign a military contract to secure legal status.
Unsustainable Russian losses
As of April 29, Russia has suffered more than 1.32 million casualties since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, according to estimates from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At a press conference on March 31, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia has lost more troops than it has been able to replenish in the first three months of 2026.
At the time, Ukrainian estimates put Russian losses in 2026 at 89,000.
Sources: Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, LB.ua
