Kathrine Frich
The balance of power has recently flipped on its head.
Power struggles inside authoritarian capitals rarely happen out in the open.
From the outside, a government can look completely united while rival factions quietly battle for control behind closed doors.
Right now, a major shift in power is unfolding at the very top of Moscow’s leadership.
Battle for control
Russian opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky says a fierce turf war has broken out inside Moscow’s halls of power.
Speaking to the Polish news outlet Fakt during the Warsaw Security Forum, the longtime Kremlin critic said Russian President Vladimir Putin faces no real pushback from ordinary voters after the country’s recent parliamentary elections.
Instead, the real fight is happening right inside the government.
“There’s a conflict going on between the Kremlin’s two towers,” Khodorkovsky told Fakt. He explained that the clash pits Putin’s presidential administration against the Federal Security Service, Russia’s main domestic intelligence agency known as the FSB.
Both groups are fighting over political influence and state resources, and the balance of power has recently flipped on its head.
“What’s new is that the presidential administration used to be above the FSB, but now the FSB actually stands above the president’s office,” he told the outlet.
Fuel for war
Even with infighting at the top and worsening conditions at home, Khodorkovsky told Fakt that Putin has enough backing to keep fighting in Ukraine “for quite a while yet.” He pointed to a recent Russian poll asking people if they or a family member would be willing to fight in Ukraine.
Because only 35 percent of respondents said no, Khodorkovsky argued that the Kremlin still has plenty of room to call up more troops.
Money and hardware are keeping the military running too. According to Khodorkovsky’s interview with Fakt, Moscow spends roughly 8 percent of its total economic output on the conflict while maintaining a positive foreign currency balance. Meanwhile, China currently supplies 90 percent of the equipment Russia needs.
Still, the opposition leader told Fakt that Western leaders could slow down the Russian war machine if they change tactics.
“If the West finally manages to realize the mistakes it has made regarding sanctions and move towards proper sanctions on technology, then there is a chance to hinder the Kremlin’s war efforts,” he explained.
He also urged Western countries to lure away Russia’s shrinking pool of skilled workers to hurt Moscow’s war effort. Finally, Khodorkovsky warned Fakt that Russian leaders are watching closely to see if Europe can defend itself without help from the United States, adding that “Europe is still on the table right now.”
