Kathrine Frich
The US operation in Venezuela is continuing to send ripples through military and political circles.
Attention is now turning to what might happen next if power in Caracas changes hands.
Analysts warn that the fallout may extend far beyond Latin America, potentially reaching deep into Russia’s military secrets.
Weapons under scrutiny
Many observers expect that a Washington-backed figure could soon take control in Caracas.
According to Defense Express analysts, such a shift could open the door for the United States to access years’ worth of Russian-supplied military equipment.
Venezuela is considered one of the most heavily armed countries in South America. Much of its arsenal consists of post-Soviet and Russian-made systems delivered over several decades.
While older hardware may hold limited interest, analysts say newer systems stationed in Venezuela could prove far more valuable to US military planners.
Air defence focus
Defense Express highlights air defence as a particular area of concern for Moscow.
Analysts note that Venezuela received two divisions of S-300WM systems from Russia in 2013.
They also report that in October 2025, Russia transferred an unspecified number of Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E air defence systems to Venezuela during several Il-76TD transport flights.
“Of particular interest to the United States may be the S-300WM air defense systems,” Defense Express analysts write, pointing to the rarity of Western access to such equipment.
High-value systems
The Pantsir-S1, one of Russia’s most advanced short-range air defence systems, is used to protect strategic sites in Russia, including Moscow and the winter residence of President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, according to the analysis.
The system combines 57E6 or 57E6-E missiles with 30mm 2A38M automatic cannons, allowing it to engage drones, aircraft and other smaller aerial targets.
Defense Express suggests that close examination of such systems could offer US engineers valuable insights into Russian air defence capabilities and weaknesses.
Aircraft and missiles
Analysts also point to other assets that could attract American interest, including the 9A52 Smerch multiple-launch rocket system and Venezuela’s Su-30MK2 multirole fighter jets.
Particular attention is given to the R-77 air-to-air missile, which prior to the operation in Venezuela was regarded as a serious threat to US aircraft.
According to Defense Express, gaining access to these systems could significantly benefit US assessments of Russian weapons performance.
Sources: Defense Express, Wirtualna Polska
