Kathrine Frich
The war reshaping Eastern Europe is no longer confined to the front lines in Ukraine.
Analysts say the conflict’s pressure is spilling across borders, quietly altering the balance of power in neighbouring states.
New assessments suggest these shifts are happening not through formal declarations, but through gradual military and political absorption.
Silent takeover
Russia has effectively taken control of Belarus, amounting to a de facto annexation, according to a new analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The findings were reported by UNN and cited by Digi24.
Analysts argue that Moscow now treats Belarusian territory as an extension of its own military space, using it to advance broader strategic goals in Europe.
They say this control allows Russia to operate with minimal resistance from Minsk, particularly in security and defence matters.
Airspace incidents
The ISW analysis points to recent airspace violations involving Poland and Lithuania as part of this strategy.
On the night of January 30–31, balloon-like objects entered Polish airspace from Belarus for the second time in 72 hours.
Poland’s Operational Command said military radar detected the objects overnight and assessed that they were most likely balloons.
In response, Polish authorities temporarily restricted airspace over the Podlaskie Voivodeship along the eastern border with Belarus.
Hybrid pressure
The Operational Command described the incident as “another incident in a series of hybrid-type incidents observed in the eastern part of Poland.”
In recent years, weather balloons have frequently crossed from Belarus into Poland, often linked to cigarette smuggling.
ISW analysts say the latest incursions fit a broader pattern rather than isolated accidents.
They assess that Russia is using such actions as part of its so-called “phase zero” efforts, aimed at shaping informational and psychological conditions ahead of a potential confrontation with NATO.
NATO concerns
According to ISW, these low-level incursions help test responses, create uncertainty and normalise boundary violations without triggering open conflict.
Polish authorities said that on the night of February 1, the army again recorded “an incursion into Polish airspace of balloon-like objects from Belarus.”
The objects were tracked by radar and were not considered a threat.
“The Polish Armed Forces remain ready to perform tasks related to ensuring the security of Polish airspace,” the Operational Command said.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, UNN, Digi24
