Russian territorial gains fall to lowest level in three years, analysts say

Ukraine and Russia remain locked in a long and costly war, with fighting continuing across hundreds of kilometers of front line. While battles remain intense, recent figures suggest that Russia’s territorial gains have slowed significantly compared to previous stages of the conflict.

Lowest monthly rate in three years

According to Ukrainian military analysis group DeepState, Russian forces captured just 14 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory during May. The analysts said this was the lowest monthly rate of Russian advance recorded in the past three years.

DeepState reported that May was Russia’s weakest month for territorial gains since October 2023. That was the period when Russian forces launched a large offensive across multiple sections of the front line.

The group noted that Ukraine’s own territorial gains are often added to maps later than they occur for security reasons. Based on its assessment, May was the first month since Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive in which Russia’s net territorial gains were actually negative.

Despite the slowdown in advances, Russian forces increased the number of attacks. DeepState said Russian troops carried out more than 7,000 assaults during May. That represents a rise of 37.5 percent compared to previous months.

However, the increase in attacks did not produce major battlefield gains.

Russia continues infiltration tactics

According to the report, Ukrainian forces are receiving constant pressure from small Russian assault groups. In many cases, attacks are carried out by only one or two soldiers at a time. Analysts said these troops often come under fire before they can make meaningful progress.

DeepState also stated that Russian infiltration tactics continue. Even so, Ukrainian defenders have become more effective at detecting and responding to these incursions. As a result, Russian troops are finding it harder to establish positions or strengthen their presence in contested areas.

The analysts said the war may be entering a new phase. They pointed to several recent leadership changes within Ukraine’s military structure as a positive development. New commanders and officials have taken up key positions, while some controversial figures have been reassigned.

Not all areas of the front are improving. DeepState described the situation near the eastern city of Kostiantynivka as difficult and warned that prospects for the city remain poor.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces recently regained territory near Novoselivka after launching a new offensive operation earlier in May.

Sources: DeepState

This article is made and published by Anna Hartz, who may have used AI in the preparation