Kathrine Frich
Tensions in the Middle East remain fragile
Diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation continue, but mistrust between key players persists as questions swirl over nuclear oversight and military deterrence.
On the brink of disaster
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said new strikes on Iran would carry serious repercussions for the wider international community.
In an interview with Al Arabiya, Lavrov warned: “The consequences would be adverse.”
He recalled that previous attacks had already targeted nuclear facilities monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Lavrov was referring to U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025, which he said not only damaged the authority of the IAEA and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but also created “real risks of a nuclear incident.”
He added that the situation is currently “more or less stable,” citing information from Iranian officials. However, he said the earlier attacks forced Tehran to reconsider the physical protection of nuclear materials under IAEA supervision.
Undermining oversight
According to Lavrov, the strikes created both physical and political risks.
He argued they “undermined the authority of the IAEA and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” which Iran has repeatedly described as binding.
Lavrov also said that after the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed, IAEA monitoring of Iran was “unprecedented.”
He maintained that Tehran “was never found violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty or its agreement on guarantees with the IAEA,” and said tensions escalated only after the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.
Escalation and ceasefire
Hostilities intensified in June 2025 when Israel launched strikes against Iran, prompting retaliation from Tehran.
Days later, U.S. aircraft targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities.
Iran subsequently struck the Al Udeid U.S. airbase in Qatar. U.S. officials reported no casualties or major damage.
On June 24, former President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. Both sides later declared success in achieving their respective objectives.
Following the strikes and what it described as insufficient condemnation from the IAEA, Iran suspended cooperation with the agency before partially resuming it in September under a new agreement.
In November, Tehran notified the agency it was terminating that arrangement after another resolution demanding expanded access to nuclear sites.
Sources: TASS, Al Arabiya
