Kathrine Frich
Beijing props up its neighbor because the financial rewards and geopolitical leverage are simply undeniable.
Sometimes a friendship looks balanced from the outside. But behind closed doors, it quickly becomes clear who holds the power.
A major international alliance is now quietly turning into a one-sided survival game.
A shift in power
Before 2022, Moscow kept its trading options open. Europe bought its gas, and foreign money flowed freely into Russian markets.
Today, that picture looks entirely different. Russia has lost its Western buyers, leaving the country isolated and scrambling for parts.
Beijing stepped in to fill the gap. Yet, Chinese money is not actually pouring across the border according to United24Media.
A recent United Nations report found that Russia accounted for roughly 1% of China’s foreign direct investment before 2020. That number dropped to 0.3% between 2021 and 2023.
Buying on the cheap
Instead of investing long-term capital, China prefers to simply buy and sell. This economic dynamic heavily favors Beijing.
According to the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Russian goods made up just over 5% of Chinese imports in 2023. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies reported that Russia represented only about 4% of China’s total foreign trade in 2024.
For Moscow, the situation has become absolute dependence, as China now buys roughly 30% of all Russian exports.
Beijing gets heavily discounted oil in return. They also boost the global standing of the Chinese yuan, which Russia routinely uses to settle foreign bills.
The petro-state future
Alexander Gabuev from the Carnegie Center recently brought attention to the deep ideological cracks forming between the two capitals.
“Both Beijing and Moscow lack a coherent, operational vision for an ‘ideal’ world order,” Gabuev said.
Experts warn that this unequal bond will eventually hollow out the Russian economy. The German Institute for International and Security Affairs issued a stark warning about this trajectory.
“This kind of cooperation with China would make Russia more like a real petro-state, while Russian manufacturing would be eroded,” the institute stated.
Raising the cost
Beijing props up its neighbor because the financial rewards and geopolitical leverage are simply undeniable. They gain cheap resources at a fraction of the market cost.
But Western governments might still have a practical tool to break this cycle. Expanding secondary sanctions could quickly strip away those benefits.
The European Union Institute for Security Studies outlined this exact vulnerability.
“China has a strong geopolitical and ideological interest in supporting Russia. But increasing the price for Beijing could make it reduce its support,” the institute noted.
Sources: United Nations, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, United24media.
