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The Russian forces will need some significant changes on the battlefield for that deadline to be met.
30 years.
That is how long it could take Russia to seize the entire Ukrainian Donbas region, according to a May 10 report from The New York Times.
After making substantial territorial gains at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has struggled to seize more territory, especially in 2026.
Across the front line, Ukraine reportedly regained control of more than 100 km² in April after Russia gained only 23 km² in March.
Donbas is made up of the two oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk, and in August 2025, Reuters reported that Russia controlled all of Luhansk and approximately three-quarters of Donetsk.
The battlefield has, of course, shifted since then, but analysts assess that Russia does not control all of Donbas as of May 2026.
But that is about to change — at least if Russia’s military leadership is to be believed.
Fall deadline
According to the Financial Times, Russia’s military commanders have presented a new timeline to their leader. They believe their forces can capture the entire Donbas region by the end of autumn.
The newspaper spoke with sources who interact personally with Vladimir Putin, alongside experts from Ukrainian intelligence.
The mood in Moscow has apparently changed. Earlier this year, the Russian president seemed willing to pause the fighting where the troops currently stood. That willingness has now disappeared.
Raising the price
According to the Financial Times report, Kremlin officials feel confident. They believe that seizing the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions will give them significant leverage. At that point, Moscow plans to demand much larger concessions from Kyiv.
Ukrainian officials are sounding the alarm. Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence, warned that a victory in Donbas would not satisfy Russia.
He believes Moscow would quickly demand full control over the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Large parts of those areas are still firmly in Ukrainian hands today.
Peace talks appear incredibly distant. The Financial Times noted that both sides seriously doubt the United States can broker a meaningful deal anytime soon.
Sources: Financial Times, The New York Times, Institute for the Study of War, Reuters, United24Media
