Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The cornerstone was made possible by local counterattacks as well as a decline in Russian activity.
In early May, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released an assessment of territorial gains and losses in Ukraine.
The analysis showed that Putin’s forces reportedly advanced and took control of 318 km² in January 2026, but in February those advances had plummeted to just under 123 km².
March saw Russian advances of only 23 km², and April truly turned the tables as Ukraine managed to retake approximately 116 km² from Russian forces.
Add to that Russian casualties reportedly exceeding 35,000 per month, and it is clear that Russian forces are struggling in Ukraine.
In fact, Ukraine has now gained so much momentum that it has achieved a first for the entire duration of the war.
A subtle shift
According to Ukraine’s top military commander, Ukrainian forces recently pushed back harder than their Russian counterparts during a single 24-hour period.
This sign of progress reflects a decline in Russian momentum and an increase in local counterattacks.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi shared the news in an interview with Militarnyi on May 19. Syrskyi explained that Ukrainian actions had finally eclipsed Russia’s operations.
“Yesterday’s 24-hour period, which ended at 00:00, was characterized by the fact that the number of our offensive actions for the first time exceeded the number of offensive actions by the enemy,” Syrskyi said.
He added: “That is, our counterattacking and offensive actions on the front were greater than those carried out by the enemy.”
Military leaders attribute this change to continuous strikes on Russian troops. Ukrainian forces are using a strategy called active defense, which means striking back whenever an opportunity appears.
Massive troop concentrations
But the danger is far from over. Russian troops are still pushing hard in areas such as Pokrovsk, Ocheretyne, and Lyman, according to the Militarnyi report.
Moscow has concentrated a staggering number of soldiers in key locations. Syrskyi warned that Russia has deployed nearly 99,000 personnel in the Pokrovsk direction alone.
“Of course, this is a huge figure, and we are doing everything to reduce this number,” Syrskyi stated during the interview.
This massive buildup shows why the fighting remains so intense. Even though Russian operations have slowed near the Kharkiv and Sumy borders, the overall pressure remains immense.
Reclaiming territory
Despite the difficult conditions, Ukraine has managed to secure several significant victories recently. A major push at the end of April allowed Ukrainian troops to reclaim roughly 500 square kilometers of territory.
That operation also restored control over 12 settlements in the Oleksandrivka region, though the commander hinted that the mission is already evolving.
“The issue has not been completed. It has currently simply shifted into a slightly different format. I will later report exactly what kind,” Syrskyi said.
Sources: The Institute for the Study of War, Militarnyi
