Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Ukraine has managed to turn the tide, making time work in its favor, not Putin’s.
What was meant to be a swift victory in just 10 days when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 has turned into a war that has now lasted longer than World War I.
Where Russian forces made huge advances in the initial stages of the invasion, Ukraine managed to launch a successful counteroffensive in late 2022, taking back vast areas of territory under Russian control.
Since then, the front line has been more or less frozen, with very few advances seen on either side.
As the war turned into a grinding war of attrition, Russia was believed to have the upper hand simply because of its numbers — but that is no longer necessarily the case.
In fact, Ukraine is managing to inflict such heavy casualties on Russian forces that a European spy chief suggests Putin needs to hurry if he wants to negotiate peace while still holding the upper hand.
A narrowing window
In an interview with CNN published on May 23, the head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Kaupo Rosin, said that Putin “may not be able to negotiate from a position of strength anymore,” in the next four or five months.
Economic struggles and societal anxieties are all converging on the Russian president simultaneously. These mounting vulnerabilities may eventually force a shift in stance because.
The spy chief also noted that people in the Kremlin are no longer talking about a total Russian victory
Extreme casualty rates
The human cost has reached staggering proportions for the invading force. Over a two-year period ending this January, Russian units crawled forward at an average pace of just 70 meters per day.
During that slow advance, roughly 1,000 Russian personnel were killed or wounded daily, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Other tracking groups backed up those grim estimates.
CNN notes that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the extreme lethality of the fighting last week, noting that the Russians are “losing 15,000-20,000 soldiers a month dead. Not injured, dead.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry claimed Moscow suffered 35,203 casualties during April alone. The number has not been independently verified.
The aerial deadlock
Technological innovations have fundamentally reshaped the war, creating a defensive shield. Tiny automated aircraft now inflict the vast majority of casualties on the front lines, locking opposing armies into their positions.
Rosin predicted that drone technology will prevent sweeping offensives, leaving both forces “unable to conduct a massive, mechanized breakthrough” deep into enemy territory.
Despite the gridlock, Kyiv insists its defensive capabilities are evolving. According to Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine has managed to double the proportion of Russian Shahed drones destroyed by Ukrainian interceptors over the past four months.
Sources: CNN, Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ukrainian Defense Ministry
