Lauge Risom Koch 
A Financial Times analysis argues that Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine is increasing pressure on Vladimir Putin, though experts say any serious challenge to his rule would most likely emerge from within the country’s elite rather than through public opposition.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has entered its fifth year with no decisive breakthrough in sight, while signs of strain are becoming increasingly visible inside the country.
According to Digi24, citing a commentary by Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman, the prolonged conflict is raising new questions about Vladimir Putin’s long-term political future.
War reaches Moscow
According to The Financial Times, this year’s scaled-back Victory Day parade in Moscow highlighted growing security concerns inside Russia.
The Kremlin reportedly avoided displaying large numbers of tanks and heavy military equipment amid fears of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Meanwhile, airport closures, mobile internet disruptions and attacks on military-related targets have become more frequent in and around the Russian capital.
Rising fuel prices linked to strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have also added to the domestic impact of the war.
Mounting costs
According to The Financial Times, Britain’s GCHQ intelligence chief Anne Keast-Butler recently estimated that nearly 500,000 Russian troops have been killed during the conflict, with many more wounded.
The war has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany during World War II.
Despite years of fighting, Russia has yet to achieve several of its key objectives, including full control of the Donbas region.
The report argues that the lack of a clear victory is contributing to growing unease within parts of Russia’s elite.
Historical warnings
According to Digi24, The Financial Times notes that military setbacks have often preceded major political upheaval in Russian history.
The defeat in the Russo-Japanese War contributed to unrest in 1905, while failures during World War I helped pave the way for the Russian Revolution.
The Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan also became one of the factors linked to its eventual collapse.
These historical examples have fueled speculation about whether prolonged difficulties in Ukraine could eventually weaken Putin’s position.
Elite tensions
According to The Financial Times, the most realistic threat to Putin would likely come from divisions within Russia’s ruling elite rather than from public protests.
The closest challenge to his rule occurred in 2023 during the short-lived Wagner Group mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin.
However, since then, Putin has tightened control over Russia’s security structures and military establishment.
Experts cited by the newspaper argue that while dissatisfaction may exist behind the scenes, the Kremlin’s system remains heavily dependent on loyalists whose interests are tied to the current leadership, reports Digi24.
Sources: Digi24, Financial Times
