Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The report outlines a good, a continuing and a bad scenario for the future.
Two high-profile Russian figures have just laid out striking possibilities for the nation’s future at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, also known as “Putin’s Davos.”
During a presentation, oligarch Konstantin Malofeev and philosopher Alexander Dugin showcased several detailed plans.
According to the Russian business newspaper Kommersant, Malofeev introduced the presentation as a “scientific report prepared by a whole group of experts”.
The presenters divided their predictions into positive, negative, and continuation scenarios. In their best-case vision for 2036, Russian forces would successfully capture major Ukrainian cities such as Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv.
They also predicted that the European Union would completely collapse by that same year.
The worst-case scenario, however, would see the dismantling of Russia as a nation.
Extreme nuclear warnings
The worst-case track involves a total military defeat in Ukraine, followed by Kyiv joining NATO and Russia losing all its regional influence.
By 2050, this scenario warns that outside powers would effectively colonize the country.
However, the middle path contains the most alarming prediction. If the conflict simply drags on at its current pace, the report suggests that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons.
This effectively tells the world that the Kremlin must win, or an atomic war could follow.
Dugin noted that his think tank, the Tsargrad Institute, has already shared these ideas with military leaders at the General Staff Academy. The group plans to publish the full report by the end of 2026.
A clever shield
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that Malofeev is affiliated with the Kremlin and that Dugin is considered an ultranationalist.
Dugin is also known as “Putin’s brain,” as his philosophical views are believed to have heavily influenced the Russian leader.
ISW believes these extreme ideas may actually serve a political purpose for the current government. By allowing hardliners to voice such radical outcomes, the Kremlin can make President Vladimir Putin appear calm and moderate by comparison.
However, the think tank also suggests that the Russian government must walk a fine line. Putin relies heavily on the backing of these passionate hardliners to sustain the war effort. He cannot simply dismiss their radical demands without risking their crucial support.
