Kathrine Frich
The changing seasons often shift the rhythm of a long military conflict.
Putin’s commanders search for new ways to break through on the battlegrounds.
Now, they are reportedly planning to use the winter weather itself as a devastating weapon.
A chilling strategy
Following a disappointing spring campaign, Russian leadership is preparing a massive push for the upcoming winter. The goal is to maximize pressure on the neighboring nation before the conflict enters a new stage.
Maria Snegovaya, an analyst at the CSIS think tank, told the New York Post cited by Digi24 exactly how this strategy might unfold.
“Putin will again wait until winter to resume large-scale strikes and trigger a humanitarian crisis to extract concessions on Donbas,” Snegovaya explained. She warned that incoming attacks on civilian targets could easily surpass the destruction seen last year.
Kateryna Stepanenko from the Institute for the Study of War shared similar concerns. She suggested that vital railways and urban water systems could quickly become prime targets.
Paying the price
A massive military push requires cash, and the country is bleeding money rapidly. The national budget deficit recently swelled to a staggering $81.4 billion.
Government spending spiked by 17 percent just to keep the military running. At the same time, vital oil and gas revenues plummeted by nearly 30 percent.
To cover this massive shortfall, the Kremlin is quietly selling off its national treasury. According to Russian Central Bank data, gold reserves plunged by 5.7 tons in April alone.
“Russia’s gold reserves are being drained, the civilian market is facing labor shortages, and the economy has taken a serious hit,” Stepanenko noted.
Emptying the classrooms
This financial strain directly impacts troop levels on the front lines. According to the New York Post, military volunteer numbers plummeted to a mere 30 per month in May.
Desperate for recruits, officials are allegedly pressuring students to sign up. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation recently published a leaked audio recording of a Siberian principal urging 18-year-old boys to sign military contracts.
Meanwhile, state authorities are tightening their grip on communication. Widespread internet outages and heavy restrictions on the Telegram messaging app are limiting public access to independent news.
Desperate measures
Stepanenko predicted that the desperate government will soon be forced to take drastic measures to fund its ongoing combat operations.
“We may see mobilization, reductions in benefits for recruits and veterans, and perhaps even the nationalization of the assets of Moscow’s elites to raise funds for the war,” she said.
Sources: New York Post, CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, Russian Central Bank, Australian Broadcasting Corporation
