Kenneth Glad
The cost of a long conflict is reshaping public finances. Officials now face harder choices as planned spending no longer appears to match actual needs.
Russia is preparing to spend far more on the war in 2026 than its budget first allowed, Bloomberg reports.
The extra amount could reach 4 to 5 trillion rubles, roughly €39 billion to €49 billion, about 40% above the original allocation. The reports did not specify a single budget category, but described the increase as war spending tied to Moscow’s continuing campaign against Ukraine.
That gap matters because Russia has long presented low state debt as a shield against outside pressure. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly pointed to the country’s modest debt levels as a sign of economic durability.
Borrowing fills the gap
“To cover the shortfall, Russian authorities are expected to rely more heavily on the domestic debt market. Bloomberg reported that new borrowing may need to rise by another 2 to 3 trillion rubles, roughly €20 billion to €29 billion.”
Domestic borrowing can help the government avoid immediate cuts, but it also moves costs into future budgets. Money spent on interest cannot be used for pensions, regional support, infrastructure, or other civilian priorities.
Russia had already planned to raise slightly more than 4 trillion rubles, about €39 billion, through domestic borrowing in 2026, according to RBC Ukraine.
But the rising cost of past borrowing is also weighing on the budget: Meduza reports that debt servicing is set to cost about the same amount, roughly 9% of federal spending.
That places interest payments behind only a few larger areas, including defense, national security, social policy, and the economy.
The budget was already under strain early in the year. Russia’s deficit reached 6 trillion rubles, about €58 billion, in the first five months of 2026, equal to 2.6% of GDP, according to Bloomberg figures.
The strain spreads
That shortfall was about 60% higher than the target for the entire year, leaving officials with limited choices: Borrow more, cut elsewhere, seek more revenue, or accept a wider deficit.
RBC Ukraine writes that Russia could spend at least 15% of GDP on public-debt interest over the next decade.
The outlet also linked the fiscal strain to a wider wartime slowdown and reported fuel disruptions in many Russian regions.
Those details point to a broader problem for Moscow: The war is not only raising direct military costs, but also making ordinary budget planning more expensive and less predictable.
Sources: Meduza, RBC Ukraine, Bloomberg
