Kathrine Frich
Chinese officials refused to sign anything.
Global alliances often look rock solid from the outside.
But when you look behind the handshakes, the real balance of power tells a very different story.
One side is pulling the strings.
A changing dynamic
Back in 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow and called Vladimir Putin a “role model.” Those days are long gone. The Russian leader has slipped into a much weaker role.
The Wall Street Journal cited by Meduza reports that Russia is now a junior partner. Desperate for cash, Putin recently traveled to Beijing hoping to finalize a massive new gas pipeline.
He left the summit with dozens of signed agreements, but the crucial pipeline deal was missing. Chinese officials refused to sign anything unless Moscow offered gas at rock-bottom domestic prices.
Playing the long game
China is perfectly happy to wait. Before the conflict, Europe was the main trading partner for Moscow. Today, China controls nearly 40 percent of Russian foreign trade.
Conversely, Russia makes up less than 4 percent of the massive Chinese market. This huge gap gives Beijing total control at the negotiating table.
“It’s better to wait a little longer until the economic situation in Russia deteriorates further, until the country is on its knees and ready to agree to terms favorable to China,” Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Berlin Center told The Wall Street Journal.
Keeping up appearances
Despite the quiet power grab, Xi treats Putin with extreme respect in public. Beijing remembers exactly how the Soviet Union mistreated China during the 1960s.
“The lesson to be learned from this relationship is that you can’t use your position as a senior partner to humiliate a junior partner,” historian Sergei Radchenko explained.
Even so, Beijing is forcing concessions. Putin recently had to accept the Chinese yuan as the main currency for a regional development bank. He fought that move for over a decade.
Looking at the future
Tensions are also bubbling up over North Korea. Putin wanted a joint summit with Pyongyang, but the Chinese government flatly rejected the idea.
Beijing wants to keep North Korea firmly in its own backyard. Behind the scenes, Chinese officials are building deep ties with the next generation of Russian leaders.
“China truly has a very good chance of turning Russia into something like a giant Laos, a giant Pakistan,” Gabuev noted in the report.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Meduza
