Nicolai Haugsted
Trump chooses one of America’s safest Republican states for a crucial campaign stop just weeks before the midterms.
Donald Trump has only a few weeks left to make his presidential megaphone count before Americans decide control of Congress in November.
Republicans have competitive races demanding attention across the country, making every presidential campaign stop a potentially valuable piece of political real estate.
Trump’s next destination is therefore raising an obvious question.
Why Alabama?
The president will travel to Mobile on October 2 for a midterm campaign rally, sending him to one of America’s most reliably Republican states while his party simultaneously battles over considerably less predictable territory elsewhere.
Trump 47 Committee has now formally announced the event at the Mitchell Center on the University of South Alabama campus. Doors are scheduled to open at 3:30 p.m., with Trump due to take the stage at 6 p.m, according to Politico.
Alabama is hardly the obvious place to panic
Republicans are playing defense in several races that would normally give the party considerably less reason to worry.
Alabama does not fit neatly into that category.
Democrats are not generally considered serious contenders for statewide office there this year, which makes sending the president to Mobile during the final stretch of the midterm campaign an unusual allocation of Trump’s time.
Still, Alabama’s congressional map contains a race with considerably more intrigue.
Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures is trying to hold Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District against Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques.
Figures currently represents the district, while Marques secured the Republican nomination in August.
Recent redistricting has made the political terrain substantially more favorable to Republicans. One Democratic internal poll conducted in June nevertheless showed a remarkably close contest, putting Marques at 45 percent and Figures at 44 percent among 400 likely voters.
Party-sponsored polling should be treated cautiously, and the survey predates Marques winning the Republican nomination. Still, it offers at least some evidence for why Republicans may not want to leave the seat unattended.
Trump has endorsed Marques, whose campaign explicitly promotes its support for the president’s agenda.
There is one geographical catch
Mobile might seem like a convenient place for Trump to give Marques a presidential boost.
The electoral map makes that explanation slightly messier.
Mobile itself sits outside the newly configured 2nd District, even though Figures has longstanding ties to the city and maintains a congressional office there.
Figures’ district instead covers much of southeastern Alabama, including Montgomery, the Wiregrass and counties across the eastern Black Belt.
Trump’s visit therefore cannot simply be reduced to campaigning inside one competitive House district.
A broader Republican turnout push may be part of the attraction.
Alabama also features several Trump allies seeking major offices this November, giving the president plenty of friendly political company during his trip.
Trump has friends on the Alabama ballot
Republican Rep. Barry Moore is running for the US Senate, while Sen. Tommy Tuberville is seeking the governorship against former Democratic Sen. Doug Jones.
Trump’s relationship with Alabama politics stretches well beyond the current campaign.
Mobile itself holds a particularly notable place in his political history. Trump staged a massive rally there during his first presidential campaign in 2015, long before his transformation from celebrity businessman into the dominant figure in Republican politics.
His return more than a decade later comes under very different circumstances.
Trump is now a sitting president attempting to protect his congressional majority rather than an outsider trying to convince Republican voters that he belongs in the White House.
South Carolina received similar presidential attention last month, when Trump campaigned there during a Republican primary runoff. North Carolina, a far more competitive state, was on his schedule last week.
Alabama now gets its turn.
A $2.5 billion announcement provides convenient timing
Trump also arrives shortly after his administration delivered some substantial financial news for Mobile.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced on September 18 that the Alabama Toll Road, Bridge, and Tunnel Authority would receive a federal loan of up to $2.52 billion for the Mobile River Bridge and Bayway project.
Federal transportation officials describe it as the largest infrastructure project in Alabama history.
Plans include a new six-lane bridge over the Mobile River, additional Bayway capacity and other transportation improvements around Mobile and Baldwin counties.
The entire project carries an estimated cost of roughly $5.3 billion, with the federal TIFIA loan covering a significant share of the financing.
Such an announcement gives Trump a sizeable local accomplishment to point toward when he reaches the Gulf Coast.
