Iran and Israel at war – and it should make Jinping and Putin very scared

The conflict could lose China and Russia an important partner in the fight against US dominance.

Instability Alarms Moscow and Beijing

The war between Israel and Iran is sparking concern all over the World, but it’s likely that both China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin might be borderline panicking over the events of the weekend

Regional alliance unraveling

While China and Russia have issued strong condemnations of Israel’s strikes, their concern goes deeper.

Tehran’s vulnerability threatens to unravel a regional alliance that has long counterbalanced U.S. dominance in the Middle East – exposing a broader strategic vulnerability.

Russia’s Middle East Strategy Under Threat

When Syria’s Bashar al-Assad was removed from power in December, Russia lost it’s first vital foothold in the region.

With Iran now on the verge of collaps, Russia’s ambitions to be a dominant player in the Middle East is now crumbling.

Autocratic Allies with Shared Tactics

To The Telegraph, Tuvia Gering, a China and Middle East specialist at Israel’s Institute of National Security Studies, notes that Russia, China and Iran is not only bound by politics, but also “learn from each other and share technologies on how to suppress their own populations,”

Fears Over Iran’s Nuclear Path

What truly rattles both China and Russia is the possibility that Iran may quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and race toward building a nuclear bomb.

Such a move would reduce Beijing’s and Moscow’s leverage over Tehran and increase regional instability.

China needs Iranian oil

China, which imports up to two million barrels of oil daily from Iran, is especially vulnerable to the ongoing conflict.

Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities, and any escalation that endangers energy hubs in the UAE or Saudi Arabia, could severely disrupt China’s energy lifeline.

Sanctions Undermine Trade Prospects

Even if the conflict cools, Iran’s sanctioned economy offers little promise.

China and Russia might consider arms deals or infrastructure projects, but according to Tuvia Gering, Iran’s limited cash flow, any cooperation would likely rely on barter rather than profits.

Diplomatic Activity Heats Up

Behind the scenes, Moscow and Beijing are scrambling. Putin has initiated calls with leaders across the region, including Netanyahu and Trump, and even offered mediation.

Meanwhile, China’s foreign minister is in talks with both Iran and Israel, reflecting deep concern.

Preparing for Post-Iran Scenarios

With fears of regime collapse, similar to what happened in Syria, China and Russia are hedging their bets.

Beijing in particular is preparing to “make nice with whoever is left to rule,” underscoring the high geopolitical stakes at play, Gering said to The Telegraph.