The ‘Rasputica’ period begins: Expert predict the coming months for Ukraine and Russia

The coming weeks will bring the “rasputica”, a season when rain turns the roads into deep mud, slowing tanks and trucks and shaping the rhythm of war.

Deep strikes ahead

In the months to come, both armies are expected to focus on what military analysts call “deep strikes.”

Ukraine is likely to continue attacking Russian oil refineries and power facilities near the border, while Russia will try to cripple Ukraine’s energy grid and plunge cities into darkness.

NAF Major Jānis Slaidiņš explained in the Latvian TV24 program Current Affairs on the Hostilities in Ukraine that Russia currently holds the upper hand.

“They have enough long range missiles, for Ukraine it is all slower and quite cumbersome,” he said.

Ukrainian drones, however, remain effective because “the designers are constantly improving the means.”

Weapons and weaknesses

Ukraine’s main challenge is range. While its drones can reach targets inside Russia, they are no match for Moscow’s advanced “Iskander” ballistic or “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

According to Slaidiņš, Ukraine’s stock of long range weapons is still too limited to match Russian firepower.

To compensate, Kyiv relies on mass drone launches.

“For some drones to reach their target, they need to be in large numbers,” the expert noted. “Some lose control, some are shot down, and some get through.”

The battle for opinion

Both sides, Slaidiņš said, aim not only to damage infrastructure but also to influence minds.

“They want to change public opinion to increase pressure on leaders to negotiate on their own terms.”

He also referred to comments by Donald Trump, who recently said that he had “stepped aside for now,” admitting that his influence over peace talks was limited.

Trump compared the situation to “two children fighting in the park” who must “grow up” before real negotiations can begin.

The season of mud

Military experts expect little movement on the front lines in the coming weeks as the rasputica sets in.

The heavy rains and thick mud will slow vehicles and make logistics difficult.

Traditionally, this period brings a pause in major offensives and a drop in combat intensity until the ground freezes again in winter.

This article is made and published by Kathrine Frich, which may have used AI in the preparation