Kathrine Frich
The gap between political optimism and intelligence analysis is becoming harder to ignore.
As Washington pushes for a diplomatic breakthrough on Ukraine, U.S. intelligence agencies are delivering a far more pessimistic message behind closed doors.
Their assessments suggest that the assumptions guiding current negotiations may not align with Moscow’s long-term intentions.
A fundamental disconnect
According to reporting by Reuters, U.S. intelligence agencies continue to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions extend well beyond a limited settlement in Ukraine.
Analysts believe his strategic objectives have remained consistent since the launch of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Those conclusions stand in sharp contrast to public statements by U.S. President Donald Trump and his envoys, who have said Moscow is seeking an end to the war.
Intelligence officials, however, see no evidence that Putin has abandoned broader territorial aims.
One source familiar with the assessments said the most recent intelligence review was completed in late September.
Negotiations under strain
Despite the intelligence warnings, U.S.-led negotiations are advancing.
Trump’s representatives, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have been working for weeks on a revised 20-point peace framework with Ukrainian, Russian and European counterparts.
Talks in Berlin and Miami have focused heavily on post-war security arrangements for Ukraine.
Diplomats told Reuters that proposals under discussion include European-led security deployments away from the front lines, U.S.-backed intelligence sharing and air patrols, and limits on Ukraine’s future military size.
These discussions have progressed even as doubts persist over whether Russia would accept such guarantees at all.
Security versus sovereignty
The question of territory remains the most divisive issue. Russia currently occupies roughly 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and large areas of the east and south, and continues to claim those regions as Russian territory.
Reuters reported that Trump has pressed Kyiv to consider withdrawing from remaining Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk as part of a broader deal.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected any territorial concessions, a position supported by much of Ukrainian public opinion.
Zelensky has also expressed skepticism about proposed security guarantees, questioning whether they would meaningfully deter future Russian aggression.
What intelligence sees
U.S. intelligence assessments also reject Moscow’s claims that Russia poses no threat to Europe.
Analysts instead view the war as part of a longer-term effort to restore influence over territories once controlled by the Soviet Union, including parts of Eastern Europe now within NATO.
“The intelligence community has always said that Putin wants more,” Mike Quigley, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, told Reuters.
He said European allies, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, share that concern.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the CIA and the Russian embassy did not comment on the assessments.
A fragile premise
At his annual press conference, Putin reiterated that his conditions for peace had not changed and pointed to Russian battlefield gains.
He has repeatedly opposed the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine, casting further doubt on the viability of proposed guarantees.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the uncertainty, saying Washington cannot be sure whether Putin seeks compromise or continued conquest.
Sources: Reuters, U.S. congressional statements, Hotnews.
