Kathrine Frich
Russia’s strained public finances are forcing difficult choices as revenue streams dry up.
New figures point to an unprecedented drawdown of state reserves to keep the budget afloat.
Officials insist the measures are technical, but analysts see deeper signs of pressure on the Kremlin.
Unprecedented sales
According to The Moscow Times, Russia’s Finance Ministry plans to sharply increase sales of foreign currency and gold from the National Welfare Fund (NWF).
From January 16 to February 5, the ministry will sell Chinese yuan and gold worth 12.8 billion rubles, or about $165 million, per day.
In total, the operation will amount to 192.1 billion rubles, roughly $2.48 billion.
The newspaper reported that this represents the largest daily volume of such sales in Russia’s history.
The pace exceeds even the peak of the COVID-19 crisis, when daily transactions reached around 11.4 billion rubles.
Reserves shrinking
The scale of the current operation marks a sharp acceleration.
In December, daily sales stood at about 5.6 billion rubles, meaning the current level is more than double.
According to figures cited by The Moscow Times, Russia’s government reserves fell by nearly 60 percent last year compared with pre-war levels, a drop of about 5.6 trillion rubles.
Over the three years of the war launched by Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin has liquidated roughly three-quarters of its gold reserves, the report said.
Energy revenues slide
The increased reliance on reserves is driven by falling income from oil and gas, traditionally the backbone of Russia’s budget.
In 2025, oil and gas revenues dropped by around 25 percent, reaching their lowest level since the pandemic, according to the Finance Ministry.
Officials now expect the 2026 budget deficit to reach 5.7 trillion rubles, or about $63 billion. That is far higher than the initial forecast of 1.2 trillion rubles.
The widening gap underscores the difficulty of balancing spending commitments with weaker export earnings.
Economic risks ahead
Experts quoted by The Moscow Times estimate that lower Russian oil prices could cut export revenues by about $35 billion.
Such a decline would weigh on economic growth and could force further reductions in government spending.
Economists warn that continued depletion of reserves limits the Kremlin’s room for manoeuvre if shocks intensify.
As gold and currency holdings shrink, Russia’s ability to cushion future budget shortfalls may weaken further.
Sources: The Moscow Times, money.pl
