Kathrine Frich
Western sanctions continue to squeeze Russia’s economy, forcing the Kremlin to search for alternative markets to keep vital revenues flowing.
Oil exports, a cornerstone of Moscow’s finances, have become increasingly vulnerable as traditional buyers reassess their ties with Russia.
Now one of Russia’s most important energy partners is beginning to step back.
India, which emerged as a major buyer of discounted Russian crude after the invasion of Ukraine, is shifting part of its demand elsewhere, dealing another blow to Moscow’s efforts to stabilise its war-strained economy.
Angola deal
Indian Oil Corporation, the country’s largest refiner, has ordered around two million barrels of crude oil from Angola for delivery in March, according to Reuters.
The purchase was brokered by the US energy giant ExxonMobil.
The deal marks a notable increase in India’s engagement with African producers. Angola, already a key exporter, is benefiting from India’s efforts to diversify its supply chains.
The shipment is part of a broader rebalancing of India’s crude sourcing.
Beyond Russia
In the same contract, Indian refiners also secured oil from Brazil and the United Arab Emirates, Reuters reported. These supplies are intended to replace reduced volumes previously sourced from Russia.
Indian authorities have begun limiting purchases of Russian crude amid pressure from the European Union and the United States. As a result, Russia’s share of the Indian market has declined sharply.
In January, Russian oil sales to India fell to their lowest level in several years, according to Reuters.
Falling volumes
Data from the Centre for Energy and Clean Air Research, cited by the Times of India, shows that India imported about 1.2 million barrels of Russian oil per day in December. That compares with around 1.7 million barrels per day in November.
The drop represents a significant loss of revenue for Moscow, which has relied heavily on India as a key outlet since Western sanctions curtailed sales elsewhere.
Analysts say the trend reflects both geopolitical pressure and India’s desire to reduce dependence on a single supplier.
Africa gains ground
As Russia’s role diminishes, African exporters are stepping in. Libya, in particular, is expected to strengthen its position in the global oil market at Russia’s expense.
Experts note that Libya’s daily oil production recently reached 1.375 million barrels, its highest level in more than a decade. The country aims to raise output to at least 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of 2026.
With rising production and fewer political constraints, African suppliers are becoming increasingly attractive to buyers like India.
Sources: Reuters, Times of India, WP.
