Kathrine Frich
Signs are emerging that Pyongyang may be scaling back its support for Moscow.
New satellite imagery suggests a sudden slowdown that has raised questions among analysts about what is driving the change.
The findings point to fewer shipments by both sea and air, marking a notable shift in a supply route Russia has relied on heavily during the war in Ukraine.
Satellite signals
According to NK News, analysis of recent satellite images shows only one Russian container ship entering a North Korean port in January.
In previous months, vessels linked to the arms trade between Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea were calling at such ports at least three times a month.
The last confirmed visit before January took place on December 21. Planet Labs imagery reviewed by journalists shows a Russian ship docking at a quay associated with arms exports on January 14, after unloading empty containers at a nearby quay the day before.
The vessel was identified as likely being the Angara or Lady R, ships that have previously played a central role in transporting weapons and ammunition from North Korea to Russia.
Fewer flights
NK News also reported a decline in air traffic linked to weapons transfers.
After the ship’s departure in mid-January, containers were gradually unloaded over several days and then remained at the quay for up to three weeks before being moved onward.
At the same time, flights believed to be transporting North Korean military equipment to Russia dropped sharply compared with previous months, according to the satellite analysis.
Together, the reduced maritime and air activity suggests a broader slowdown rather than a brief logistical pause.
Why the slowdown
The reasons behind the decline remain unclear.
Analysts cited by NK News suggest exceptionally bad weather may have disrupted shipping and aviation routes in the region during January.
Other possible explanations include changes in the dynamics of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, or internal political considerations in North Korea that may have prompted Pyongyang to curb arms exports, at least temporarily.
Expert doubts
Military expert Pavel Lakijczuk told the Ukrainian news agency UNIAN that neither North Korea nor Belarus appears eager to deepen its involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
“North Korea and Belarus are not seeking deeper involvement in Russia’s war with Ukraine,” he said, adding that the deployment of North Korean soldiers had failed to deliver the results Moscow may have hoped for.
If the trend continues, analysts say it could weaken one of Russia’s key ammunition supply channels.
Sources: NK News, Planet Labs, UNIAN, WP.
