The fifth year of the war has begun – and Putin is not off to a good start

The fifth year of the war in Ukraine has begun, but it’s safe to say, that the war, that was supposed to be a 10-day blitzkrieg from Russia, has not started as Putin would have hoped.

Besides the more than 1.2 million Russian casualties, meager territorial gains, an economy on the verge of collapse with a full-blown recession being a very real risk in the first half of 2026, and battlefield losses greater than what the Kremlin can replenish.

That’s all bad news for Putin, but looking at what is happening on the front, it gets even worse:

• The battlefield in eastern and southern Ukraine is shifting again as winter gives way to spring.
• Recent fighting suggests that predictions of an unstoppable Russian advance may be premature.
• And most notably: Ukrainian forces have recorded their most substantial gains in months, challenging the narrative that Moscow holds the upper hand across the front.

Ukraine gaining ground

In its February 24, 2026, update on the war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that Ukrainian troops launched a wave of counterattacks near Kupyansk in mid-December 2025, regaining control over key areas around the town.

Between December 11 and 25, they recaptured at least 183 square kilometers, pushing Russian forces out of several nearby settlements.

Those positions have largely held despite ongoing Russian attempts to reclaim lost ground. Current battlefield patterns do not indicate that Moscow will swiftly reverse Ukraine’s progress there.

Winter counterattacks

ISW also highlights early February 2026, where Ukrainian units initiated additional limited offensives in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions, spanning parts of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions.

According to assessments by the ISW, Ukrainian forces reclaimed roughly 200 square kilometers in areas near Novopavlivka, Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole, resulting in a net gain of approximately 165 square kilometers, as they also lost a bit of ground.

Challenging Moscow’s narrative

According to the ISW, these developments undermine repeated claims from Moscow that a Russian victory is inevitable and that Kyiv’s position will only deteriorate.

While the think tank cautions that these counterattacks are unlikely to evolve into a broad counteroffensive, they have disrupted Russian preparations for a planned Spring-Summer 2026 campaign. Russian units may now be compelled to consolidate defensive lines and recover lost ground before resuming larger offensive operations.

ISW notes that although most reclaimed areas are not strategically decisive, apart from Kupyansk, the cumulative effect could slow Russian momentum in critical sectors this spring.

Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation