Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Russian forces reportedly suffered 9000 more casualties in January, than they were able to replenish.
The war in Ukraine has entered it’s fifth year instead of being the quick 10-day blitzkrieg planned by Russia, when the invasion was launched – and the Russian’s are struggling on the battlefield.
On February 11, 2026, Bloomberg cited western officials for saying that Russia suffered approximatly 9000 more casualties, than they were able to replenish the same month, and since the Ukrainian defense is planning in increasing the monthly casualties inflicted on the Russian forces, this has the potential to become critical for Putin’s war plans.
And according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is very aware of this and is allegedly preparing the Russian public for future forced callups to the military.
A decision that could spark fierce domestic backlash.
Patriotic duty stressed
On February 23, 2026, the ISW noted that Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, used the Russian holiday, Defender of the Fatherland Day, marking the 1918 creation of the Red Army,
He said Russian troops carry an “enormous responsibility” for the country and its “common cause.” He also declared that a “sense of patriotism and responsibility for the fate of the Motherland” binds together soldiers of different ethnicities and faiths.
ISW assessed in the same update, that Putin’s repeated emphasis on “responsibility” reflects efforts to prepare society for potential limited, rolling reserve call-ups, trying to minimize the potential domestic anger of involuntary military call-ups.
Medvedev’s signal
Deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, appeared alongside military personnel on the same day wearing a uniform, despite not currently serving in the armed forces.
According to the ISW, Medvedev stated that Russia “needs” victory but that the “price of victory matters,” urging troops to “take care of themselves…[and] their loved ones.”
Observers noted the rare acknowledgment of costs, as officials have often stressed readiness to fight until Moscow achieves its objectives in Ukraine.
Social cost concerns
Putin also met widows of soldiers killed in Ukraine, telling them the “Motherland” for which their husbands died would remain with them.
He pledged ongoing state support and said authorities would pay “constant attention” to veterans’ families.
Russia has expanded financial incentives and social benefits to encourage recruitment, measures that have weighed on the federal budget. ISW suggests further call-ups could intensify those pressures and potentially lead to adjustments in compensation.
The Kremlin has previously faced online criticism over payments and benefits.
Sources: Bloomberg, Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
