Kenneth Glad
A new national survey suggests the balance of power in Washington could face renewed pressure next year. The findings offer an early snapshot of voter sentiment as both parties begin positioning for the 2026 midterm fight.
According to an Emerson College poll released Thursday, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by eight points, 50% to 42%, among likely voters.
The survey was conducted Feb. 21–22 among 1,000 likely voters using mixed-mode methodology (online and text-to-web) and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
The Democratic advantage is two points larger than in January and six points larger than in December, when the parties were nearly even. A separate Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll this month found Democrats ahead by 14 points among voters who say they are certain to participate, suggesting similar movement across national surveys.
Historically, the president’s party tends to lose ground in midterm elections. Since World War II, it has lost House seats in 19 of 22 midterms.
That record matters.
Approval Ratings and Voter Priorities
The same Emerson poll shows President Donald Trump with 43% approval and 55% disapproval, a four-point rise in disapproval from January. His net rating now stands at minus 12 points.
Among Hispanic voters, 58% disapprove and 37% approve. Last month, that group was nearly split. Hispanic voters account for roughly one in five eligible voters nationwide and make up decisive blocs in closely contested House districts in the Southwest and parts of Florida.
Economic issues dominate voter concerns. On a 1-to-10 importance scale, respondents rated cost of living at 8.2 on average, followed by health care costs at 7.8 and inflation at 7.6. Deportation policy registered at 7.1, and border security at 6.3.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the data indicate voters are more focused on household expenses than immigration policy heading into the midterm cycle.
Early Positioning for 2028
The poll also tested early presidential preferences.
Vice President JD Vance leads a hypothetical 2028 Republican primary field with 52% support overall and 59% among Republicans. Marco Rubio registers 20%, while Ron DeSantis receives 6%.
On the Democratic side, California Gov. Gavin Newsom draws 20%, Pete Buttigieg 16%, and Kamala Harris 13%. Nearly one-quarter of Democratic voters — 24% — say they are undecided.
Turnout intention could shape how those numbers translate next year. In the same survey, 66% of registered voters said they are “absolutely certain” to vote in 2026. The figure rises to 79% among Democrats, compared with 65% of Republicans and 56% of independents.
If those participation gaps hold, even small preference shifts could carry outsized consequences in competitive districts.
Sources: Emerson College Polling; Washington Post
