Kathrine Frich
Russia’s muted response to the US-Israeli strike on Iran is being viewed by some analysts as a sign of shrinking influence.
One Lithuanian political scientist argues that Moscow is facing another geopolitical loss as a key partner in the Middle East is weakened.
Strategic setback
Speaking to Polish outlet o2.pl, Dr. Martinas Maluzinas said the Kremlin had limited itself to statements of condemnation following the attack that killed senior Iranian figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“Putin’s circle is starting to shrink significantly. For Russia, this is a strategic defeat. Another loss of influence,” he told the publication.
Iran has been one of Moscow’s closest partners, supplying Shahed 136 drones that Russia has used extensively in its war against Ukraine.
According to previous reporting cited by o2.pl, hackers from the Prana Network group claimed in 2024 that the Kremlin had ordered thousands of drones from Tehran.
Limited response
Despite that cooperation, Russia has not taken military action in response to the strike.
Instead, President Vladimir Putin described the attack as “unjustified, provocative, and dangerous aggression.”
Dr. Maluzinas said he was not surprised by Moscow’s restraint, arguing that Russia is already heavily committed to its war in Ukraine.
“Russia is engaged in a strategic war. It’s deploying its conventional means there, and this is its geopolitical backyard,” he said, noting that during a previous Israeli strike on Iran in June 2025, Moscow also refrained from direct involvement and offered mediation instead.
In his view, any Russian reaction is likely to remain at the level of diplomatic protest rather than military escalation.
Impact on alliances
The expert dismissed suggestions that Washington and Moscow may have coordinated over Iran as “rather conspiratorial.”
“I believe Trump probably didn’t trade Ukraine for Iran,” he said, adding that the Kremlin lacks the capacity for broader intervention and is acting in line with its existing strategy.
He suggested that while Russia could offer symbolic assistance, such as air defence systems, Tehran’s priority will be its own survival.
“The threatened regime will have to defend itself first and foremost,” he said.
Turning to China
Dr. Maluzinas argued that the weakening of Iran represents a broader contraction of Russian influence, not only in the Middle East but also in other regions.
“For Russia, this was its fourth sphere of influence,” he said, warning that losing Tehran as a military partner could push Moscow closer to Beijing.
“Moscow must be careful, because in my opinion, it is falling into the arms of the Chinese dragon. Losing Tehran as a military supporter means the Kremlin must buy weapons from the government in Beijing,” he told o2.pl.
Sources: O2.pl.
