Kathrine Frich
Iran is entering a period of political uncertainty following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
His son Mojtaba Khamenei has been named as the new leader of the Islamic Republic. However, analysts say the real balance of power in Tehran may not lie with him.
Some observers believe the country’s powerful military establishment, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), now holds the decisive influence in Iran’s leadership.
Mojtaba Khamenei “cannot replace” his father
Mohsen Sazegara, a co-founder of the Revolutionary Guard, told Euronews that Mojtaba Khamenei had been prepared for the position for many years but still lacks the authority his father held.
According to Sazegara, Ali Khamenei spent about 15 years preparing his son for succession by placing loyal supporters within key institutions including the Revolutionary Guard, networks of Friday prayer leaders and the Guard’s intelligence structures.
Despite those efforts, Sazegara believes Mojtaba Khamenei cannot truly take his father’s place.
“First of all, he does not have this position, even though thousands of preparations have been made for this. Second, the structure of the leadership office has been practically dismantled,” he said.
Sazegara also claimed that several important figures who supported the leadership structure were killed during the same attack that killed Ali Khamenei, including Asghar Hejazi and General Mohammad Shirazi.
“Right now, the biggest problem they face is that of war and reconciliation or peace. If they choose peace, they have a problem, and if they don’t choose peace, the country is heading towards an uncertain end,” Sazegara said.
Revolutionary Guard now holds the advantage
Sazegara said the Revolutionary Guard has effectively taken control of decision-making following the death of the longtime supreme leader.
“Currently, the IRGC has the advantage and has threatened everyone that under war conditions, if you oppose them, you can be sentenced to prison or death,” he said.
He added that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has been sidelined during the current crisis.
“Pezeshkian, who didn’t have much authority even in normal times, has now been effectively marginalized in wartime conditions,” Sazegara said.
According to him, several senior figures have played a key role in managing the country’s affairs during this period. These include former Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf.
Both men are said to support Mojtaba Khamenei. Hossein Taeb, head of the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence organization, is also considered part of this group if he remains alive.
“Therefore, it can be said that a faction and a circle of IRGC commanders who control these sectors currently have the advantage and will be the determining force,” Sazegara concluded.
Sources: Euronews, AP News, The Guardian, Digi24
