Kathrine Frich
Peace in Ukraine does not appear to be close for now, as the war continues into its fifth year.
Fighting remains intense, and both sides are still heavily mobilised on the battlefield.
But even as the conflict drags on, analysts are increasingly asking what might happen once the war eventually ends.
One of the biggest questions concerns the future of the hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers currently deployed in Ukraine.
Growing uncertainty
The war in Ukraine has now lasted more than four years, and although efforts to reach a settlement continue, the outcome remains unclear.
Journalist Mateusz Lachowski said during Wirtualna Polska’s “Newsroom” programme that some people in Ukraine may worry about their future once the conflict ends.
“There are certainly entrepreneurs and some politicians who fear that after the war, they might simply be, as they say in Poland, ‘shut out’,” he said.
However, he stressed that most Ukrainians want the war to end so they can rebuild their country and return to everyday life.
Russia’s bigger concern
According to Lachowski, the situation could be far more complicated for Russia.
“In Russia, I have the impression that there is this fear of what will happen if this war ends,” he said.
He pointed out that more than 700,000 Russian soldiers are currently stationed in occupied territories of Ukraine, with the number continuing to grow.
Problem for the Kremlin
Lachowski argued that the Kremlin may struggle to simply demobilise such a large number of troops.
Some of the soldiers involved in the war, he said, have criminal backgrounds, which could make their return to civilian life difficult.
“Creating this ethos of these ‘special operations fighters’ means that these people will inevitably have certain demands from the state,” he said.
“They will have expectations about their role in society when they return home.”
Possible border deployment
Instead of sending soldiers home, some could be redeployed to other strategic areas.
Lachowski suggested that Russian forces may be positioned near NATO’s eastern borders after the war.
“Some of these people will simply go to the Baltic states and our border, for example to Belarus, to put pressure on us, to scare us, to use the army again, because that’s what Russia needs the army for: to conduct politics,” he said.
Sources: Wirtualna Polska
