August M
A growing crisis in the Middle East is beginning to ripple far beyond the region, with experts warning of serious consequences elsewhere. Countries in Africa are now bracing for economic strain as vital supply chains come under pressure.
The Guardian reports that disruptions linked to the Iran conflict are threatening the flow of key goods through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global trade. The waterway is not only central to oil shipments but also to fertiliser exports that many African nations rely on.
This dependency leaves several countries exposed, particularly where agriculture and household spending are closely tied to imported inputs.
Fertiliser squeeze
According to the UN’s trade and development agency (Unctad), a significant share of fertiliser imports in African countries arrives via the Gulf.
The Guardian reports that around 54% of Sudan’s fertiliser imports pass through this route, along with 30% for Somalia and 26% for Kenya.
Roughly one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz, making any disruption especially impactful for farming systems.
Rising costs
Fertiliser prices have surged since the conflict escalated, raising concerns about food production and affordability.
Unctad warns that higher input costs, combined with rising oil and gas prices, could drive up food prices and deepen cost-of-living pressures.
“Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us,” said Jervin Naidoo of Oxford Economics Africa.
XN Iraki of the University of Nairobi added that the effects would be felt “acutely” due to widespread income instability across the continent.
Governments respond
Authorities across Africa are taking steps to manage potential shortages and price shocks.
The Guardian reports that Kenya has secured fuel imports in advance, while Tanzania is strengthening fuel reserves.
Ethiopia has introduced subsidies to cushion rising costs, and Zambia has warned against fuel hoarding.
Wider impact
Experts caution that structural weaknesses, including reliance on imports and existing debt burdens, make many African economies particularly vulnerable.
Rama Yade of the Atlantic Council said rising oil prices pose “serious economic challenges” and could force governments into difficult decisions that may spark social pressure.
At the same time, some oil-exporting nations such as Nigeria and Angola could benefit from higher prices, even as others struggle.
The Guardian reports that the conflict is also disrupting African exports to the Middle East, including food shipments from countries like Kenya.
Sources: The Guardian, UNCTAD
