August M
After a period of soaring prices, the coffee market could be heading for a downturn, industry experts say.
New forecasts suggest the commodity may follow a similar path to cocoa, which saw a steep fall after record highs.
According to Reuters, discussions at the National Coffee Association’s annual meeting in Tampa focused on whether coffee prices could mirror cocoa’s recent collapse.
Carley Garner, senior commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, said: “I would be shocked if it did not happen,” adding: “I do think coffee is the new cocoa.”
Price surge
Cocoa reached historic highs above $12,000 per ton in late 2024 after poor weather disrupted supply in key producing regions.
Prices later dropped sharply as consumers cut back and manufacturers adjusted recipes and portion sizes to manage costs.
Coffee has experienced similar upward pressure, with arabica beans hitting record levels in early 2025 due to adverse weather in tropical regions.
Trade disruptions, including tariffs introduced under U.S. President Donald Trump, also contributed to keeping prices elevated, Reuters reported.
Demand pressures
Rising costs have started to influence consumer habits, with a National Coffee Association survey finding 61% of Americans had taken steps to reduce spending on coffee.
Some respondents said they were visiting cafés less frequently or choosing lower-cost options, although overall consumption remained stable.
Within the industry, traders have observed a shift away from premium arabica beans towards more affordable robusta varieties.
Outlook ahead
Analysts now expect prices to fall further as supply improves, particularly with forecasts of a strong harvest in Brazil.
Garner predicted coffee could drop to $2 per pound by the end of the year, while Avere Commodities analyst Digby Beatson-Hird suggested it may fall to $1.80.
Despite this, some experts note that coffee demand has held steadier than cocoa, which could limit how far prices decline.
Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera said demand stalled in 2025 but could recover, forecasting a 2% increase in 2026 as lower prices reach consumers.
Sources: Reuters, National Coffee Association, Rabobank
