Camilla Jessen
New figures suggest one prominent Republican contender may be losing ground.
JD Vance’s chances of winning the next election have dropped significantly, according to prediction market data cited by Newsweek.
At one point this week, his odds fell to around 18 percent, marking a sharp decline from figures above 30 percent reported last year.
The Ohio senator and current vice president had previously been seen as a strong potential successor to Donald Trump, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term under the 22nd Amendment.
Changing predictions
Forecasts remain fluid, with different platforms offering slightly varied outlooks. PredictIt data showed California Governor Gavin Newsom briefly leading Vance, before the Republican regained a narrow edge days later.
As of late March, PredictIt placed Vance at roughly 24 percent compared to Newsom’s 22 percent. Meanwhile, Kalshi data suggested a tighter race, with Vance at 18.8 percent and Newsom close behind at 18.1 percent.
Despite the fluctuations, analysts note the broader trend points to reduced confidence compared with previous months.
Rogan comments spark reaction
The latest shift comes amid renewed attention on comments by podcast host Joe Rogan, who criticised supporters of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement.
Rogan described some MAGA followers as “really weird, uninteresting, unintelligent people that have got something they cling to” and also referred to them as “dorks”.
The remarks prompted a response from Vance during an appearance on The Benny Show.
Addressing the criticism, Vance said: “I think we have many, many fewer dorks than the far left, but everybody’s got some dorks.”
He added: “We love our dorks. We love our cool kids. We love anybody who wants to save the country.”
Sources: Newsweek, PredictIt, Kalshi, The Benny Show, Unilad
