Kathrine Frich
Relations between Russia and NATO have deteriorated sharply.
Moscow has stepped up both its warnings and its military signaling.
Western officials have pointed to a pattern of threats and cross-border incidents that are raising concerns across Europe.
Growing risk
A senior French military official has warned that Russia could test NATO’s ability to respond in the coming years.
General Dominique Tardif, deputy head of the French Air and Space Force, said such a scenario is “not impossible,” according to an interview with Libération cited by O2.
He suggested the risk could increase if the United States becomes focused on interests outside Europe.
Possible timeline
Tardif pointed to a potential window between 2028 and 2029 as a period of heightened danger.
He said this could coincide with political changes in Washington and a possible easing of the war in Ukraine.
During that time, Russia may be able to rebuild parts of its military capability, raising the likelihood of renewed pressure on NATO.
Eastern flank focus
The general noted that NATO’s eastern members could be particularly exposed.
He said Western air forces, including France’s, may need to operate on the alliance’s front line, especially as Baltic states lack their own fighter aircraft.
This would require rapid deployment capabilities and constant readiness.
France’s role
Tardif also highlighted France’s potential role in providing security guarantees for Ukraine in the future.
He said Paris could take responsibility for the “air component” of a coalition supporting Kyiv after a ceasefire.
That would involve patrol missions, rapid-response operations and maintaining high operational readiness.
Preparing for conflict
France is already increasing its military preparedness, including building ammunition stockpiles for high-intensity warfare.
The general pointed to lessons from ongoing conflicts, particularly the high rate at which missiles are used.
He also noted efforts to develop more cost-effective ways to counter drones, including the use of so-called “killer drones.”
Sources: PAP, Libération
