Camilla Jessen
Speculation over presidential stability is gaining traction in unexpected places.
Recent data suggests a growing number of traders are betting on the possibility that President Donald Trump could be removed from office under the 25th Amendment.
According to Newsweek, activity on prediction platform Kalshi has increased in recent days.
Kalshi users have been trading on a contract asking whether the 25th Amendment will be invoked during Trump’s presidency. Newsweek reported that the “Yes” position has climbed from 28.6% to 35.1% over the past month.
The figure hits the second-highest level recorded since the beginning of Trump’s second term. When the contract launched in January 2025, support for that outcome stood at 15%, according to the platform.
While such markets do not predict outcomes with certainty, they are often viewed as indicators of changing public expectations during periods of uncertainty.
Political reaction grows
The increase follows a series of controversial statements by Trump, including posts about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
In one message shared on Truth Social, he wrote: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day all rolled into one in Iran. There will be nothing like it again!!! Open the damn strait, you fools, or you will live in Hell – JUST WATCH!”
Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, responded by urging action from within the administration. He described the post as “completely, absolutely insane,” according to Newsweek.
Constitutional hurdles remain
The 25th Amendment allows the vice president and a majority of Cabinet members to declare a president unfit to carry out official duties.
However, it has never been used to remove a sitting president.
Its primary use has been for temporary transfers of power during medical procedures. Any attempt to invoke it would require multiple formal steps, including potential involvement from Congress.
Sources: Newsweek, Kalshi
