Asger Risom
Oceans are nearing record heat levels, with scientists warning a likely El Niño return could trigger new waves of extreme global temperatures.
Global ocean temperatures are hovering near historic highs, raising concerns that the return of El Niño could push the planet into another period of extreme heat.
Scientists warn the combination of natural climate cycles and human-driven warming is putting increasing pressure on the global climate system.
According the EU’s Copernicus climate observatory, ocean surface temperatures reached 20.97°C in March, just below the record set a year earlier. Early April data suggests the upward trend is continuing.
Copernicus says current conditions point to a likely transition toward El Niño later this year.
Warming seas signal shift
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern marked by large-scale warming of Pacific Ocean waters, with effects that ripple across the globe.
The last episode, spanning 2023 and 2024, contributed to the warmest years ever recorded.
The World Meteorological Organization has already warned of its possible return, estimating a 40% chance of El Niño forming by mid-2026 as La Niña fades.
Rising global impact
Warmer oceans play a central role in intensifying climate risks.
Higher sea temperatures contribute to rising sea levels, fuel marine heatwaves that damage coral reefs, and increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as storms, heavy rainfall and cyclones.
Globally, March ranked as the fourth warmest on record, with temperatures reaching 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels.
Climate under pressure
Scientists say the data reflects a system under growing strain.
“The Copernicus data for March 2026 give us food for thought,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
“Each figure is striking in itself, but together, they paint a picture of a climate system under sustained and increasing pressures,” he said.
The findings also come as Arctic sea ice reached one of its lowest winter levels on record, continuing a long-term decline linked to global warming.
Sources: AFP, Copernicus, World Meteorological Organization
