Russia’s campaign to take full control of Ukraine’s Donetsk region appears increasingly strained, with heavy losses and limited progress raising questions about its strategy.
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Ukrainian officials say the battlefield situation helps explain why Moscow is pushing for territorial concessions through negotiations.
Rising pressure
According to United24Media, Russian forces have suffered sharply increasing losses in 2026 while failing to secure significant territorial gains in Donetsk.
Recent narratives suggesting Moscow would accept negotiations in exchange for control of the entire region have been firmly rejected by Kyiv.
Ukrainian authorities note that roughly a quarter of the region, including key defensive positions, remains under their control.
Mounting losses
Officials point to the scale of Russian casualties as a critical factor. Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa said losses have reached 316 soldiers per square kilometre in early 2026.
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Over the first quarter alone, Ukraine reported more than 35,000 confirmed Russian casualties in the region, with total losses exceeding 90,000.
Limited progress
Despite the heavy toll, Russian forces have made little headway in recent months.
United24Media reports that no significant tactical gains have been recorded in the Donetsk sector over the past six months, with some areas even seeing Russian retreats.
Attempts to advance have been repeatedly repelled, including early assaults in the spring offensive that resulted in thousands of casualties within days.
Strategic obstacles
A major challenge lies ahead in the form of a fortified urban belt in Donetsk.
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Cities such as Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka form a defensive arc that has proven difficult to penetrate.
While Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka, efforts to enter the city have failed, with small assault groups reportedly neutralized.
Cost of advance
Ukrainian officials argue that capturing the remaining 6,000–7,000 square kilometres would come at an unsustainable cost for Russia.
They point to prolonged battles in places like Pokrovsk and Kupiansk as examples of how difficult urban warfare can be.
The situation, they say, helps explain why Moscow is seeking to secure territorial control through negotiations rather than continued offensives.
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Sources: United24Media