Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It is equivalent to an annual expense of 1.2% of Russia’s GDP.
Behind Moscow’s confident public messaging, internal assessments tell a different story.
Latvia’s Security Service (SAB) has published a report stating that internal Russian government estimates suggest Russia has spent about $130 billion between 2022 and 2025 to bypass sanctions and secure restricted Western goods.
That equals roughly $32.5 billion annually.
For comparison, Russia’s GDP is $2.66 trillion according to Worldometer, meaning Russia spends roughly 1.2% of its GDP on circumventing sanctions annually.
The total amount spent over the four-year period from 2022 through 2025 is equivalent to roughly 4.9% of Russia’s current GDP.
And another comparison: the GDP of Croatia is $116.57 billion, according to Worldometer.
Estimates likely understated
Latvian intelligence warns these figures are likely understated. It says broader effects such as rising transport costs, weaker corporate profits, and falling state revenues significantly deepen the impact.
The energy sector remains particularly vulnerable. Losses could reach $216.5 billion over five years if the European Union imposes a full embargo and major buyers scale back purchases.
Exports across key industries are already dropping sharply. Iron ore shipments have fallen by about 40%, while the metals, chemicals, and timber sectors have also seen steep declines.
Projections from Russian institutions indicate at least another $136 billion in losses by 2030. Combined risks could shrink foreign trade by as much as $175.5 billion.
Trade ties unravel
The collapse of trade with the EU alone has cost Russia around $70 billion, the SAB reports.
At the same time, secondary sanctions are discouraging alternative partners.
Countries such as China, India, and Türkiye are increasingly cautious about expanding trade, wary of potential penalties. Russian analysts acknowledge that lost markets are unlikely to recover within five years.
According to the SAB, sanctions are constraining Russia’s financial and technological capacity, weakening its ability to sustain military efforts in Ukraine.
Despite this, the Kremlin continues its policies, with domestic systems and messaging limiting acknowledgment of the economic reality. The agency warns that easing sanctions could accelerate rearmament and strengthen anti-Western alliances.
Sources: Latvia Security Service (SAB), Worldometer, Ukrinform
