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The deadline for accepting the 30-day ceasefire proposed by Ukraine and it’s Western Allies has expired – but why is Putin not interested in stopping the fighting?
The deadline for accepting the 30-day ceasefire proposed by Ukraine and it’s Western Allies has expired – but why is Putin not interested in stopping the fighting?
Challenge issued
During the weekend, a flurry of diplomatic statements and announcements saw the day of light. It ended with Zelenskyy challenging Putin to meet him face to face in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday to talk.
No word from Russia
The Western Allies of Ukraine put forth an ultimatum for Putin: Monday Accept a 30-day ceasefire by the end of the day or face harsh sanctions. Putin remained silent throughout the day, after previously rejecting the idea of a long ceaasefire – but why does he not want to stop the fighting?
Reason #1: Russia is doing great
From a Russian point of view, things are going great. They keep advancing in Ukraine, although only capturing small amounts of land, the Trump Administration is not pressuring them very much, and the longer, Russia can hold off a ceasefire, the better their position at the negotiations table will be.
Reason #2: It will give Ukraine a chance to regroup
During the Weekend, Moscow said that a ceasefire would give Ukraine time to regroup and rearm, and therefore declined the suggested 30-day ceasefire.
Reason #3: Stalling to buy time
Russias strategy seems to be aimed and tiring out the Ukrainian population to turn its position on the war. By rejecting a ceasefire, Russia can continue attacking Ukrainian cities, tiring the population further.
Reason #4: Controlling the narrative
Russia has rejected a 30-day ceasefire, but instead suggested Ukraine and Russia meeting Thursday in Istanbul, Turkey, to discuss a possible peace. Zelenskyy has said that a meeting will only take place if the bombs are not raining over Ukraine, so it’s unlickely that Zelenskyy will go to Istanbul if a ceasefire is not in place – and this will give Putin the possibility to show himself as a peace-seeker, whereas Zelenskyy is the one refusing to meet for peace-talks.
Reason # 5: He doesn’t fear EU sanctions
For the 27 members of the European Union to impose new sanctions, all 27 countries have to agree, and Hungary has used it’s veto power on several occations, including blocking aid packages to Ukraine. That being said, sveal diplomativ sources says that Hungary will not oppose the adoption of the expected 17th sanctions.
What will happen Tuesday?
Monday, Europe warned Putin, that if he didn’t accept the 30-day ceasefire before midnight, there will he harsh consequences in the form of further sanctions. Putin remained silent, and so we could expect the sanctions to be implemented today.
Will they meet Thursday?
The big question is whether Zelenskyy and Putin will actually meet Thursdag. Zelenskyy has said, he’ll wait for Putin in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday, but if the Russian President will show up is very doubtful.
