August M
Fears of a Russian move against NATO’s Baltic states continue to circulate, particularly around Estonia. But some analysts argue the Kremlin is not prepared to take that step.
Instead, attention remains focused on other priorities shaping Moscow’s strategy.
According to LA.LV, political scientist Vadim Denisenko believes an attack on the Baltics is unlikely at this stage. He says Russia is balancing competing goals, including weakening the European Union while also seeking to restore economic ties and ease sanctions.
Denisenko also dismissed speculation about China supporting such a scenario.
“Many say that China could be Russia’s ally in this whole adventure, because China would like to attack Taiwan, and Russia, accordingly, the Baltic states. I think this is absurd, because China certainly does not need a war in Europe,” he said.
Cautious kremlin
The analyst pointed to China’s strong economic ties with Europe, estimating annual income of around $cbillion, as a key reason Beijing would avoid instability in the region.
He also described decision making in the Kremlin as increasingly inconsistent, shaped more by personal judgment than long-term planning.
Domestic pressures are also playing a role. Denisenko said declining living standards and disruptions linked to internet and Telegram restrictions are contributing to hesitation.
“Putin does not want to make risky decisions at the moment. Therefore, the likelihood of an attack on the Baltic states is currently quite low,” Denisenko believes.
Focus on ukraine
Rather than expanding into NATO territory, Denisenko said Russia’s immediate priorities remain in Ukraine.
He argued that any move toward the Baltics or Eastern Europe would depend on developments there.
“Without that, I don’t believe they will be ready to act, especially if the Europeans are also ready to defend themselves.”
According to the expert, securing Odesa and strengthening control over the Black Sea coastline is currently more important for Moscow.
“If he fails here, he will hesitate. Without mobilization, they will not have the strength to move forward,” he said.
Rising concerns
Despite this assessment, warnings persist. Journalist Vitaly Portnikov has suggested Russia could attempt to create tensions in Estonia using tactics seen in earlier conflicts.
Other analysts have pointed to Narva, a border city with a large Russian-speaking population, as a potential flashpoint.
Bild has also reported on alleged Russian information campaigns promoting separatist narratives in the region.
Sources: LA.LV, Bild
