August M
Warnings are emerging over a potential new flashpoint in the Ukraine war, as Moscow raises allegations involving neighbouring NATO countries. Analysts suggest the claims may point to broader strategic intentions rather than immediate military realities.
Fresh comments from a Ukrainian security expert indicate the situation could reflect early positioning for future escalation.
Drone route claims
In an interview with Ukrinform, military expert and former Security Service of Ukraine officer Ivan Stupak said Russia’s claims about Ukrainian drones using Baltic airspace do not align with available evidence.
“Some drones may pass over the territory of Belarus in a narrow strip along the border. As for the Baltic states, if this were a widespread phenomenon, there would already be numerous confirmations, including videos and photos,” he said.
Stupak added that while isolated cases cannot be ruled out, Moscow’s statements appear exaggerated compared to what can be verified.
He also noted that Russian authorities likely have detailed knowledge of drone flight paths toward Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad region but have not made this information public.
Signs of buildup
Despite doubts over the claims, Stupak pointed to developments that suggest Russia may be preparing for a potential shift in focus toward the Baltic region.
He highlighted increased deployment of electronic warfare systems near Narva, close to the Estonian border. “Since 2023, there has been a steady build-up of EW capabilities there. In 2025, a third site appeared. If there were about 50 recorded instances of use in 2023, in 2025 there were 13 times more,” he said.
According to the expert, such activity could indicate planning for a range of scenarios, from direct military escalation to less overt operations.
Possible scenarios
Stupak outlined that these could include missile or drone strikes, as well as hybrid tactics. “This could involve a scenario with the infiltration of armed groups, establishing control over local authorities, and creating pseudo-entities – similar to the events of 2014 in eastern Ukraine,” he said.
He stressed that any escalation would depend primarily on a political decision by the Kremlin rather than purely military capability.
External factors
The expert also pointed to international developments that could influence Moscow’s calculations. “These factors could objectively increase Russia’s confidence. In particular, changes in the oil market allow it to generate additional revenue,” he said.
He added that political signals from the United States are also being closely watched in Moscow. “Rhetoric about a possible reduction of U.S. involvement in NATO is perceived in Moscow as a signal of a potential weakening of security guarantees for European allies,” he said.
“Russia may decide to test the system’s resilience and see what the reaction will be,” Stupak concluded.
Sources: Ukrinform
