Kathrine Frich
Analysts warn Trumps recent remarks have made once-unthinkable scenarios harder to ignore.
An analysis by Politico outlines how such a move could unfold and why European officials are increasingly uneasy.
Shaping independence
Politico reported that the first step would involve encouraging Greenland’s independence movement.
Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark and would need to vote for independence in a referendum before pursuing any new international arrangements.
According to a 2025 opinion poll cited by the outlet, 56 percent of Greenlanders said they would support independence, while 28 percent opposed it.
Danish intelligence services have warned that Greenland is a target of influence campaigns.
Felix Kartte, a digital policy expert, described tactics used by Russia in countries such as Moldova, Romania and Ukraine.
“Russia is combining offline and online tactics,” he said, adding that the aim is often to create “a sense of inevitability.”
Politico noted that similar methods now appear to be used by the United States.
A favorable deal
If Greenland became independent, Politico said Washington could seek to draw it into its sphere of influence through economic and security agreements.
One option discussed is a free association agreement similar to those the US has with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau.
Kuno Fencker, a pro-independence Greenlandic lawmaker, said Greenlanders want to decide their future themselves.
“Come to the negotiating table and the Greenlanders will decide in a plebiscite,” he said.
But Thomas Crosbie of the Royal Danish Defence College warned that Trump’s negotiating style could leave Greenland vulnerable.
“I see absolutely no benefit for the Greenlandic people,” he said.
Europe’s dilemma
Politico reported that European involvement could be the next stage.
Denmark’s allies would oppose any separation, but the US could use its role in Ukraine peace talks as leverage.
One EU diplomat told Politico that Europe might be pushed to accept a stronger US role in Greenland in exchange for firmer security guarantees for Ukraine.
Such a scenario, the outlet noted, would place European leaders in a difficult position.
Military scenario
If political and diplomatic efforts failed, Politico said a military takeover could not be ruled out.
Crosbie warned of a “fait accompli strategy,” comparing it to tactics used by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.
“It could be five helicopters… it wouldn’t take many troops,” a Danish politician told Politico, speaking anonymously.
Experts said Greenland has limited defenses and that US forces already maintain a presence on the island.
Several analysts warned that any invasion would have no legal basis and could effectively end NATO.
“The US would be shooting itself in the foot,” said Romain Chuffart of the Arctic Institute.
