Kathrine Frich
End-of-the-world warnings are almost as old as recorded history.
From ancient tablets to modern pulpits, warnings of imminent collapse have surfaced whenever societies felt stretched or unstable.
Most have been rooted in belief rather than evidence.
One forecast, however, continues to resurface because it was built not on prophecy, but on mathematics.
Ancient warnings
One of the earliest recorded doomsday fears dates back nearly 5,000 years, when an Assyrian writer complained of moral decay among the young and warned society was heading for ruin.
Similar ideas echoed through history, often framed as divine punishment or cultural decline.
In later centuries, figures such as Jewish leader Simon bar Giora predicted the end of the world around 70 AD.
More recently, religious leaders have repeatedly set dates that passed without consequence.
A scientific turn
In November 1960, three researchers from the University of Illinois published a paper in the journal Science that took a different approach.
Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot analysed population growth trends across Western societies.
Their calculations led them to a startling conclusion: that unchecked population growth would mathematically “tend toward infinity” on Friday, November 13, 2026.
The date did not suggest instant annihilation, but a point where existing systems would no longer cope.
Overpopulation fears
The researchers argued that medical advances were dramatically reducing mortality rates, allowing population growth to accelerate beyond sustainable limits.
Their concern was not war or natural disaster, but food scarcity caused by sheer numbers.
In 1960, the global population stood at roughly three billion. As 2026 begins, it has passed eight billion.
Modern demographic models suggest growth will eventually slow, with a peak expected around 2080, but the pressure on resources remains a persistent concern.
Echoes of Malthus
The theory echoes ideas first raised in 1798 by British economist Thomas Malthus, who warned that population grows exponentially while food production increases far more slowly.
“Famine seems to be the last, the most dreadful resource of nature,” he wrote.
So far, agricultural innovation has repeatedly outpaced those fears.
Advances in farming, technology and distribution have prevented the catastrophic shortages Malthus predicted.
Preparing for the worst
Despite this, some of the world’s wealthiest individuals appear to be hedging their bets.
Meta chief Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly spent $187 million acquiring 1,600 acres of land in Hawaii, including plans for a large underground shelter.
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison have made similar high-value property purchases in strategically isolated locations.
Such preparations echo the dystopian futures portrayed in films like Soylent Green, where overpopulation leads to collapse.
Sources: Daily Express.
