Lauge Risom Koch 
Ukrainian intelligence claims Russia’s recruitment drive is failing to keep pace with mounting battlefield losses, while new estimates suggest Russian forces are suffering hundreds of casualties for every square kilometre captured in eastern Ukraine.
Russia is struggling to replenish its forces as battlefield losses in Ukraine continue to mount, with Ukrainian intelligence claiming recruitment efforts are falling well short of the Kremlin’s annual target.
According to the Daily Express, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) says Russia’s casualty rate is now exceeding the pace at which new soldiers are joining the military, raising questions about Moscow’s ability to sustain its offensive.
Recruitment slows
The Daily Express reported that the Russian Defence Ministry had recruited around 195,000 contract soldiers by early July 2026, less than half of its stated annual goal of 409,000 personnel.
Citing the SZRU, the newspaper said the daily recruitment rate has fallen from roughly 1,200 recruits in 2024 to about 1,090 by mid-2026. The agency also claimed Russian authorities have eased medical and administrative requirements while stepping up efforts to recruit students, foreign nationals and residents of Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on July 14 that Russian forces are sustaining more than 400 casualties for every square kilometre captured in the Donetsk region.
Heavy battlefield cost
The Daily Express also cited the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which has separately concluded that Russian losses remain exceptionally high, although it uses a different methodology to calculate casualty rates.
According to the ISW, Russian forces suffered an estimated 1,298 casualties for every square kilometre seized or infiltrated across the frontline during June 2026, compared with an average of 68 casualties per square kilometre during the same month in 2025.
The think tank said the discrepancy between its estimate and Syrskyi’s assessment reflects the different geographical areas covered by the calculations and noted it cannot independently verify casualty figures for individual regions.
Pressure grows
Despite the differing methodologies, the ISW said Syrskyi’s assessment aligns with a broader trend indicating Russia is paying a heavy price in personnel for relatively modest territorial gains.
According to the Daily Express, citing the ISW, Russia’s casualty rate has exceeded its recruitment rate since March 2026, suggesting the Kremlin could face increasing pressure to replace frontline losses without resorting to a wider mobilisation.
Sources: Daily Express, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), Institute for the Study of War
